Brewing Thoughts 2/16/20

Excited to hear that Freddy Peralta added a slider to his pitch repertoire while pitching in winter ball. We all heard the stories all offseason how dominate he was in winter ball, which while it's not nothing to sneeze at, having a good winter ball and having a good MLB season are two totally different things. But don't get me wrong, I'm at least hopeful that he really did figure something out with this slider and adding it to his fastball that played up out of the pen in addition to a curve that somtimes looked absolutely filthy. Maybe we see a full season of the nasty Peralta we saw occasionally out of the bullpen in the 2018 playoffs and the 2019 regular season. Sure would be helpful to guys like Hader, Knebel and Suter to make our pen one of the best in the league again.

Josh Hader lost his arbitration case to the Brewers so he will *only* earn $4.1 mil in 2020. The $6.4 mil he and his representation filed for which would have been the record for a relief pitcher in his first year, sure seemed like a tall hill to climb. But I can't really blame them, Hader has been pretty much far and away the best RP in MLB for the past two seasons. And honestly he is more than worth the $6.4 mil, but looks like not having many saves in 2017 and 2018 hurt his cause. It certainly isn't "fair" but it's just the way of an old, somewhat broken arbitration system. Due to his Super 2 status he achieved he gets three more years of arb. I am sure the next few years he will earn much more if he continues to pitch like he has and for his sake and the Brewers sake I sure hope he does.

Was fun to see our MVP Christian Yelich show up at NBA All-Star Saturday night in Chicago and lend an assist to Milwaukee Bucks guard Pat Connaughton in the dunk contest. Yelich rocking a old school Kareem Bucks jersey and used as a prop for Pat doing the "White Men Can't Jump" dunk. Let's be honest, anytime our athletes of our teams crossover and show up to support the other teams in the state we are always going to mark out for it. At least I know I will. Just glad Yeli was left unscathed and will be in AZ in just a day or two to report to camp.

So happy for Brent Suter, a former 31st round pick out of Harvard signs a 2 year deal to avoid arbitration (which a hearing was going to be held tomorrow). $2.5 mil guaranteed for The Raptor. Pretty awesome for a guy picked that late, doesn't throw hard at all and had TJ surgery in 2018. He was obviously huge down the stretch last season for the Brewers when he returned and they will need more of that in 2020 to compete. He has become a huge fan favorite with his quirky personalty and how fast he works on the mound. For me, I look forward to watching him pitch as much as I do Hader. He should be huge as a multi inning RP in 2020 and possibly as a spot starter depending on the health of the top five SP going into camp.

VFBC Podcast Episode 36 "Mike Fetters Edition"

Breakdown of The Show:

Reaction To Fielder's Big Deal w/ Tigers 0:00-22:00
Break
Latest on Braun (Appeal, Accepts MVP Award) 23:00-40:00
Break
Aoki Signs 2 Year Deal, Expectations & Role 41:30-56:30
Break
News & Notes (Counsell Front Office, On Deck, Roster, Arbitration) 57:30-1:12:30

I Don't Get It

As reported Monday by Adam McCalvy of Brewers.com, the Brewers did not offer arbitration to any of their 5 ranked free agents on Tuesday. Okay, I totally understand why Melvin would not offer arby to Cameron, Kendall, Looper or Weathers. Because more then likely those four guys would have taken it and meant we would be overpaying for guys we don't need nor want. But I just don't get how you don't offer arby to 2B Felipe Lopez. It just baffles my brain thinking about why you wouldn't? Doug thinks that had he offered it to Felipe he might have accepted it and then they might have to pay him $4 or $5 mill and you have a "logjam" on the infield because Lopez would want to start. Would it really be a problem to have too many good infielders? I don't think so, what if there is an injury? Then you would be covered. And the most likely and best scenario is that Lopez would have declined arby since he wants and will most likely get a multi year deal from a team looking for a good starting 2B. Thus the Brewers would have gotten a supplemental pick in the 2010 draft. But instead, no Lopez and no draft pick. I'm a big Doug Melvin fan and believer but I am not to happy with this non-move.

News And Notes 2/17/09 Edition

Busy day if your a member of the Milwaukee Brewers or a fan of the club. So much news going around I have to give my thoughts all in one post are I would be making multiple posts in one day which is something I don't like to do all that often. Mostly because I'm lazy and because it just seems pointless.

Okay so even though we know that Yovani Gallardo is the best and most talented of any of the Brewers starting pitchers he will not be starting on Opening Day 09' in San Francisco. Ken Macha made that decision today. I can't say I agree with it, but I suppose he doesn't want to put too much pressure on a 23 year old who missed most of 2008 with that ACL injury. But me personally knowing what I know of Yovani, he can handle it and wants that pressure.

Rickie Weeks and JJ Hardy will probably bat 1-2 in the lineup. That seemed kind of obvious. Moving along to the two biggest stories of the day from Brewers camp.....

Eric Gagne is back. Yes, it is hard to believe I just typed those words. He signed a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Let me say I LOVE this deal. No risk, all reward if he pitches the way he did the second half and especially down the stretch in a setup role in 2008. This now gives the Crew quite a bit of depth in the bullpen and should make for a competitive camp. If Gagne makes the team he will earn a $1.5 mill base salary and another $2 mill in incentives. The Brewers have until March 25th to put Gagne on the 40 man roster or he becomes a free agent. This was a crazy development that came WAY out of left field. Its another great move by Doug Melvin.

And the last and most refreshing news of the day, Corey Hart and the Brewers agreed on a 1 year deal avoiding arbitration. One day before going in front of an arbiter the two sides met in the middle. Hart wanted $3.8 mill the Brewers offered $2.7 mill. Hart accepted $3.25 mill. A good deal for both parties. I thought for sure this was gonna go to arbitration, maybe Hart and his agent decided it wouldn't be good for Corey to hear the Brewers rip his dreadful second half and more specific September last year. Whatever, Corey is happy and Doug Melvin keeps his arbitration hearings at zero since becoming GM of the team in 2003.

Brewers Avoid Arby Hearing With Weeks

Brewers have avoided an arbitration hearing with 2B Rickie Weeks today. Seems like a nice deal for both parties, Brewers gave him a little more then the midpoint of their offer and what Rickie wanted at $2.45 mill. Well this seems to me and most like the make or break year for Rickie Weeks. The guy was the 2nd overall pick in the 2003 draft and had so much hype around him that he was rushed a bit to the big leagues but that excuse does not work anymore. He has been up since June of 2005 so it is put up or shut up time for Weeks. We have all seen "flashes" of brilliance and greatness from Rickie. But we have seen much more of a player who make easy plays into errors at 2B and a guy who strikes out too much because he swings at to many breaking balls in the dirt.

I doubt at this point Weeks will ever reach his "potential" we put on him when he was drafted and raking in the minor leagues but if he can just be more consistent at the plate and in the field I think he can be a very solid 2B all around. If he could hit around .270 with 15-20 HR, drive in 60 runs, have an OBP in the .360 or higher range and steal more then 20 bases I would be more then happy and ready to lock him up long term. Of course being able to turn a routine double play and cutting his error totals will be huge as well.

I have been very hard on Rickie Weeks, but I'm going to keep an open mind this season and see where we are at the end of this season in his progression as a ball player. He does have tremendous raw ability and is too talented to stink for much longer. I also hope being able to work with a guy like Willie Randolph everyday will help Mr. Weeks.

Fielder To Complain Less About Contract This Season

Well it appears that the Brewers and 1B Prince Fielder have a deal in place to pay the big man $18 mill over the next two seasons, thus buying out Prince's first two years of arbitration. The deal is expected to be made "official" tomorrow after his physical. Of course everyone remembers Prince's well documented distaste for having his contract renewed before the 2008 season for only $670,000, after he just belted 50 HR's in 2007, the youngest player ever to do so.

I would imagine there will be no talk of that now with Prince about to sign this very nice contract. I would say this is actually a better deal for the club then for Fielder. If Prince has another big year in 2009 you don't have to worry about having to go into arby before next season with him where he could possibly ask for and get more then $12 mill. Also if you decide to trade Prince before the 2010 season a team will see that $11 mill salary for 2010 as a bargain plus having the opportunity to have him for his 3rd and final arbitration season and that could get the Brewers more value in a trade.

Maybe the best piece of information around all this Prince news the last two days is that Satan, oops I did it again, I mean Scott Boras told Haudricourt that Prince has lost weight since the end of the 2008 season and is committed to a conditioning program. Thank God for that, because he gained quite a bit of weight from 07' to 08' and was probably the most fat vegetarian in history.

Lots Of Arby Stiff Goin Down Today

Lots of little bits of news about the remaining Brewers arbitration eligible players broke out today little by little Of course Haudricourt was all over it all day here.

McClung signed a 1 year $1.6625 mill deal. The other players left Fielder, Hart and Weeks all submitted their numbers and none matched with what the club submitted. But none of the three are too far apart. So baring something crazy none should go to a hearing and all three should be able to meet in the middle and avoid a hearing.

Fielder and his agent Satan, errrr I mean Scott Boras want $8 mill, the Brewers offered $6 mill. Myself and most thought Fielder would be looking for $10 mill so only being $2 mill apart they should be able to get it done. I would say Fielder is probably worth at least $7 mill.

Corey Hart wanted $3.8 mill, Brewers offered $2.7 mill. Personally I would say Corey Hart is worth the $3.8 mill, that ain't much to pay a guy who although was terrible in September was an All-Star and had a very good all around year.

Rickie wants $2.8 mill in 09', Brewers say no. We want to give you $2 mill. I side the Brewers on this one. Weeks should make no more then $2 mill.

All in all, not bad that they were able to get McClung done and are very close with Fielder, Hart and Weeks. If any of these go to a hearing I would be pretty shocked. Even Fielder with Boras I expect them to settle in the middle and get the deal done.

Brewers Avoid Arby Hearing With Bush (My Most Underrated Player)

Just like with JJ Hardy, the Brewers avoided an arbitration hearing by agreeing to a 1 year $4 mill contract with Dave Bush. A nice little raise for Bush who made $2.55 Mill in 2008. Bush had a solid 2008 after a very rocky start in April and May that got him demoted to AAA Nashville. He went 9-10 with a 4.18 ERA and sparkling WHIP of 1.14. After the All-Star break Bush was 7-3 with a 3.23 ERA. Oh and you can't forget that gem he pitched in game 3 of the NLDS against the Phillies at Miller Park.

To me Bush is the most underrated player on the club. I will be honest with you, I chastised this guy at the beginning of last year when he had that ERA over 6 and was giving up long ball after long ball. But when you look at what he has done since joining the Brewers in 2006 (now as the prize of the Overbay trade), what he did after April/May last year and at his stuff he is a damn good pitcher and has become one of my favorites on the Brewers. The thing with Dave Bush is he has always given up HR's, (25+ the each of the last 3 seasons) but he doesn't give up a lot of walks or hits. When he gets in trouble it's long balls early in the game. If he can cut down on the HRs given up he could easily have an ERA under 4.

Besides giving up the HR the only other thing holding Dave back from being a legit #3 pitcher and possibly a #2 is slow starts. He historically has been bad in April and May, real bad. Bush told the JS's Tom Haudricourt today that he hopes and plans to find his groove much earlier in the season. I will go out and say right now on January 15th, Dave Bush will win at least 14 games for the Brewers in 2009. You heard it here first. He has already won 12 twice, he can make it to 14 with another ERA around 4 give or take and another WHIP in the 1.14ish range. Please make me look smart Dave, for your sake, mine and most important the Brewers.

Brewers Avoid Arby Hearing With Hardy

Brewers avoid a salary arbitration hearing and have agreed to a 1 year contract with JJ Hardy. Deal is worth $4.65 mill. Seems like a good deal to me and pretty cheap, still hope we can lock him up long term at some point. In my opinion Hardy may be the fourth best SS in all of MLB behind only the 3 R's (Ramirez, Rollins and Reyes). I suppose locking JJ up for the long term like they did Braun last year comes down to what the Brewers think of/want to do with Alcides Escobar. Should be interesting watching that situation unfold over the next couple years. The thing that gives me high hopes for Hardy in the future is he seems to have gotten better every year and I don't think he has reached his ceiling yet, which is scary.