Double Vision

Doug "The Wizard" Melvin has been hard at work in these dark days of December. It's just too bad that his magic seems to have weakened this off season. With the signings of Alex Gonzalez and K-Rod fresh in my head I have to ask...why? Granted nothing could match the fireworks we got last year as word traveled around about lucrative pick ups, and head scratches, and long shot payoffs, but are the Brewers grasping at straws to try and hold on to a contending team after the loss of Prince? Straw number one for me would be the signing of Yuni's more agile, and older, brother Alex Gonzalez.

Gonzalez has had a spotty history at best with most of his employment coming because of his glove, not his bat. In 13 seasons Gonzalez has a batting average of .247, and even Kotsay is laughing at that number. But, the story gets deeper when you take into account the fact that he has a steadily rising K%, up 6% since 2009, the inability to take any walks, career average 4.8%, and a propensity to swing at outside pitches. Really stacked up back to back Yuni would be his offensive peer, and if we want to get really real historically Yuni and Gonzalez are only separated by .002 in career fielding percentage (FP).

I wanted someone other than the Cuban Ballerina too, but that doesn't mean that we just go and sign his doppelganger. Granted it is obvious that Gonzalez saves a ton more runs when we look at the vast expanse between Gonzalez and Yuni's UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). UZR is compiled differently than FP in that it takes into account variables that get left out since FP is a simple formula, putouts and assists divided by putouts + assists + errors, while UZR will tell you how efficient the player is at turning 2, saving runs with their arm, and comparative stats against league averages. Yuni carries a -48.8 career UZR, and Gonzalez owns a career 44.3...only a small difference.

So, Gonzalez has at least proven to me on paper that we can expect the same level of production with better defense and I am OK, but not happy with this move. I am a lot happier with this than the handcuff/blessing K-Rod may or may not be. If Milwaukee brass finds a way to land a big hitter like Aramis Ramirez than my jets may be cooled, but for now I am simmering for a take off. With a group around the horn with not too much depth I worry that we are slowly turning into Oakland; great pitching, mid tier offense. We will see after the frozen tundra thaws if Melvin has a couple more tricks up his sleeve, that or Mr. Attanasio is gonna have to bring all his suits in to get the pockets let out.

-Alex

VFBC Podcast Episode 34 "Rollie Fingers Edition"

Breakdown of The Show:

Ryan Braun, NL MVP! :00-18:59
Break
SS Search Update 19:54-37:19
Break
Greinke & Marcum Extension Talk 38:11-56:13
Break
News & Notes (40 Man Roster, Sveum, Melvin, Kotsay) 57:15-1:16:51

Where The Brewers Real Focus Should Be

So we are to a point where the Milwaukee Brewers have done their usual nothing in free agency, much like many other teams, and as big offers go out to big free agents we have to wonder if the Crew will make a big move. If they do, fantastic, but it’s time to stop writing about the hopeful prospects of signing someone like Reyes and talk about what I believe the Brewers should focus on during this offseason.

For starters, the bullpen. One of the big reasons the Brewers were considered such a strong team in the playoffs was their shut down bullpen that ranked 5th in the MLB with a 3.32 ERA, that was much stronger in the second half. Right now the bullpen is a major factor, and can be fixed with a few pieces reassembled. Adding Saito or Hawkins will make for a strong 6th/7th swing man and then finding a power arm by trade, free agency or within the system will help. Still the bullpen could be even stronger with a few more pieces, and Melvin has always been very good at piecing these things together.

Plugging the holes is the next important thing. The obvious ones are there, SS, 1B but then the bench needs to be filled with some experienced starters. Melvin seems stuck on getting Hairston back into the lineup and I have no problem with that. I think 1B will be filled by Gamel and then sign an incentive contract for a 1B who is slightly past their prime, much to the history of Melvin. I think the outfield spot missing on the bench will be filled inside the system, and would love to see a cheap alternative come in at short for Yuni, most likely being Clint Barmes. As far as McGehee’s weak season goes, I think Green on the bench with a possibility of replacing or platooning with Casey would be a cheap resolution and there is your answer with the bench, filling all open spots.

Finally, and I consider this most important, resign at least ONE key starter. I think it is very important to extend this staff beyond the years it is together for. Marcum, Greinke and Wolf are free agents after the year. I think it is easy to let Wolf go, but Greinke and Marcum may leave in free agency. Yovani Gallardo will also leave the team in 2013, completely destroying the staff. I think the Brewers expect to lose two of the aforementioned pitchers internally. It appears they have a desire to get Fiers or Peralta into the rotation and condition them to be a successful part of the 2013 staff. The Brewers also have two first round college picks and Cody Scarpetta. The Brewers don’t have a great history in developing their own pitching talent, especially for the rotation. In fact the only strong success stories come from Gallardo and Sheets.

From my point of view, in order to remain competitive, the Brewers are obligated to resign one of Marcum, Gallardo and Greinke. I think the biggest deal comes in signing Gallardo. It seems like Yo only gets better and better, even though he doesn’t have much to improve. It looks like his value will only increase throughout the years. I would go into finer details, quoting WAR and ERA and wins, but any Brewer fan has noticed Gallardo’s increased dominance inside 4-6 shaky performances a year. If he can limit those big mistake games, Gallardo is going to be poised to make major money. Right now it appears he’s very under the radar and can probably be put on a 5 year contract for $80 MM or less, which is a deal for elite pitching.

Marcum and Greinke then would depart next year. I think Greinke’s comfort level will be increased if the team can compete again, but first the Brewers would need to have another good season, maybe even make the playoffs. Greinke appears ready to stay for comfort, but also wants money. Another playoff run could set the Brewers up for just that. In the coming years the only major piece outside of pitching the Crew will need to replace is Cory Hart, which appears to be easy with the depth of outfield depth in the system. The money can be placed into pitching without large concern in the future, and pitching provides ability to compete for years to come. Marcum will also be considered midmarket when he departs, so if Greinke were to depart, Marcum could probably still be locked in for a similar contract to Gallardo.

This is what I think the team should focus on over the next few months. Signing a few more players for the bullpen, filling the empty roles on the bench and finding a shortstop (everything else seems to be an inside job) and resigning at least one of the star pitchers on the team. Got any disagreements? Challenge me with a comment, and I will get back to you and tell you if you changed my mind or made me more passionate to my plan.

-Brad

Listener/Reader Poll Results

"Realistically, who is the best option at SS in 2012?"

Yuniesky Betancourt: 0%

Clint Barmes: 77%

Rafael Furcal: 0%

Jose Reyes: 11%

Jimmy Rollins: 0%

Jamey Carroll: 11%

Reader Poll Results

"Who should be the Brewers starting SS in 2011?"

Yuniesky Betancourt: 41%

Luis Cruz: 17%

Craig Counsell: 11%

Player Not On Roster Yet: 29%