Freedom With A Price

Yesterday at Maryvale Baseball Park Ryan Braun spoke his first words on the allegations of the use of PEDs or another banned substance. At first Braun seemed nervous or apprehensive about speaking on this subject, but that quickly turned to what seemed to be restrained defiance. The voice coming out of Braun, for probably the first time in his career, was filled with anger and contempt at the way the situation was handled, the breaches in his personal privacy, and the media's willingness to run with half truths and fabrications.

Braun stated that he in no way ever had the substance in his sample in his body and I believe him. Other cases involving steroid use have ended with some giant slugger, or a pitcher with a tree trunk arm, giving some half-hearted apology about using steroids. Braun, not folding to public pressure, denied up and down that he had ever taken a banned substance, and sighted his consistency in his weigh ins, power, speed, and numbers over his career which show no spikes in performance metrics or body mass that may suggest the use of steroids. In fact, given the amount of testosterone that was present in the sample, and given the amount of time between the sample before that, it would stand to reason that we would have noticed a definite spike in production. Didn't happen.

But through the turmoil of accusation Braun has always held his head high. He spoke in the press conference about how this act would be against his character. Not only that but it would in effect destroy everything he has worked so hard to accomplish. He showed that more than his public perception, more than his effectiveness in the field, and more than his financial gain he would stand to lose, Ryan Braun is most worried about how he views himself and what he has done. That speaks volumes to me, because no matter what anyone will tell you ultimately we all do things for ourselves, or to try an follow a set plan or way of life we want for ourselves. Ryan Braun is accountable to the highest ruler in the court of opinion, the personal acceptance of the things you do.

We have to remember that this story was cooked up in ESPNs rumor mill, and tossed out to the MLB audience to start a feeding frenzy for more news and information on the Braun case. They plastered the airwaves for months afterwards, only cooling down when fans started to lose interest or phase them out because of media outlets reporting supposed sourced stories when they had no new information to print. Newsflash everyone in case you didn't hear Braun does NOT have herpes, so go get him ladies! But, that was just the tip of the journalism breakdown regarding Braun's case.

Even after the press conference, and even after the decision made by the arbitrator, the court of media opinion continues to try and paint Braun as a user. They claim that Braun found a loophole in the process and that is the only reason that he was exonerated. They claim that while every player on twitter and everyone interviewed is happy for Braun they will continue to throw him in the PED pile saying he just had good lawyers, or he beat the system. Not one player had a bad word to say about Braun, and the only reluctant voice was that of Prince Fielder who claims he knew nothing about the story except that it happened. A surprising voice was that of David Freese of St. Louis who said he knows Braun and knows that he was having a really hard time dealing with this so he was happy he won his case.

The bottom line is this, because of ESPN's inability to fact check and uphold certain standards in journalism a 28 year old outfielder who just won his first MVP award, and was an integral piece to a Division pennant for his club, is viewed by the casual fan as a cheater. I hope this story is relayed to kids coming up in sports to show them how a champion acts. Braun didn't blow up, he didn't fire back, he didn't acknowledge. Ryan Braun waited until it was his turn, said his piece, and opened himself up to questions in front of the same media members that have been muckraking half-truths for 4 months and his teammates sitting in the bleachers. Braun will keep his integrity because he did the right thing, and in his own mind he will know the truth, even if no one else believes him.

-Alex

Say Car RamRod

Casey McGehee was dealt yesterday for Pittsburgh reliever Jose Veras, a move that no Brewers fan worth their salt didn't see coming. With the signing of Chicago's Aramis Ramirez Milwaukee found themselves without need of the 3rd baseman's services. Not only do I love this move, but Melvin proves me wrong again by pulling some great deals off these past couple days. After giving K-Rod his money, and signing mediocre shortstop Alex Gonzalez, I was worried that other areas, such as additional bullpen arms and the absence of a true clean-up hitter, would suffer. Now we made a 3 year $34-$37 million contract offer to Ramirez, and added much needed depth to our bullpen.

Jose Veras may not be a household name, but what he does do for the club is add another hard throwing righty into our pen. By adding Veras the Brewers now have 2 bullpen arms that can consistently hit 95 mph or better on the gun. Over the last two years Veras has also posted a positive WAR, had a K/9 of more than 10, and had a ground ball ratio hovering around 40%. Every indicator on paper says that this trade was a straight up steal by Milwaukee who only lost a backup third baseman at best. But, while Brewer Nation may be happy trolling through the Bucs forums is a different story. Most Pirates fans are not happy with this deal, but it was justified on their end as well, and they got more seasoned help for young corners Pedro Alvarez and Garrett Jones who struggled mightily last season.

I personally am slightly sad to see McGehee go. Not really for what his bat brought to the team, or his defensive prowess at third, but because I have loved this guys story from day one. Unknown infielder comes over to the Crew after being released by the Cubs, plays out of his mind, and becomes cemented into our hearts and the Milwaukee lineup after just killing Chicago every chance he got. Baseball activities aside McGehee was also a great person, donating time and money to charities close to his heart due to his son's condition. Even in June 2011 when Casey was batting .177 I defended him, and tried to make a case for Casey to rebound, sadly, as we all watched, that didn't pan out.

I guess the Brewers, and the resident's of the great state of Wisconsin, can say we took two good third baseman out of the quicksand of Wrigley Field with the inevitable signing of Aramis Ramirez to a 3 year deal. At first this is going to be a little strange for me, kinda like if we would have signed Jim Edmonds 4-5 years ago, but no one can deny that his bat is legit. We get about a match on the defense with McGehee, but his offensive numbers he puts up every year are on par with Casey's memorable 2010 season. Last season in 149 games the slugger batted .306 with 26 home runs and 93 RBIs. He has had four season in which he has hit over 31 home runs, but those days may be a thing of the past since he hasn't hit 30+ since 2006.

A-Ram serves two purposes since he not only fills a questionable position both in the lineup and in the field, but he also makes a weak and slowly sinking Cubs team that much weaker, and no matter what Epstein does this year I think it may be another 3-4 years before the the northsiders will be relevant again. Will A-Ram give us the power we lose from Fielder? No, but it's as close as we are going to get, and with Mat Gamel set to go at first we could see even better power numbers than last season with Prince if he can match even 2/3 of what he did in the minors. A-Ram also has a bit of an injury history to keep track of that may cause problems down the line.

So, Melvin appears to have done it again, and Milwaukee is setting up for a bright season. Hopefully it is not darkened by the cloud of PEDs and tarnished reputations. But, no need to dwell on the drakside since after the signings of both K-Rod and A-Ram, not to mention getting a mid tier reliever with a great breaking ball for next to nothing, Brewers fans have a lot on their plate this season, and we will see what RRR has up his sleeve. Now say car RamRod!

-Alex

Double Vision

Doug "The Wizard" Melvin has been hard at work in these dark days of December. It's just too bad that his magic seems to have weakened this off season. With the signings of Alex Gonzalez and K-Rod fresh in my head I have to ask...why? Granted nothing could match the fireworks we got last year as word traveled around about lucrative pick ups, and head scratches, and long shot payoffs, but are the Brewers grasping at straws to try and hold on to a contending team after the loss of Prince? Straw number one for me would be the signing of Yuni's more agile, and older, brother Alex Gonzalez.

Gonzalez has had a spotty history at best with most of his employment coming because of his glove, not his bat. In 13 seasons Gonzalez has a batting average of .247, and even Kotsay is laughing at that number. But, the story gets deeper when you take into account the fact that he has a steadily rising K%, up 6% since 2009, the inability to take any walks, career average 4.8%, and a propensity to swing at outside pitches. Really stacked up back to back Yuni would be his offensive peer, and if we want to get really real historically Yuni and Gonzalez are only separated by .002 in career fielding percentage (FP).

I wanted someone other than the Cuban Ballerina too, but that doesn't mean that we just go and sign his doppelganger. Granted it is obvious that Gonzalez saves a ton more runs when we look at the vast expanse between Gonzalez and Yuni's UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). UZR is compiled differently than FP in that it takes into account variables that get left out since FP is a simple formula, putouts and assists divided by putouts + assists + errors, while UZR will tell you how efficient the player is at turning 2, saving runs with their arm, and comparative stats against league averages. Yuni carries a -48.8 career UZR, and Gonzalez owns a career 44.3...only a small difference.

So, Gonzalez has at least proven to me on paper that we can expect the same level of production with better defense and I am OK, but not happy with this move. I am a lot happier with this than the handcuff/blessing K-Rod may or may not be. If Milwaukee brass finds a way to land a big hitter like Aramis Ramirez than my jets may be cooled, but for now I am simmering for a take off. With a group around the horn with not too much depth I worry that we are slowly turning into Oakland; great pitching, mid tier offense. We will see after the frozen tundra thaws if Melvin has a couple more tricks up his sleeve, that or Mr. Attanasio is gonna have to bring all his suits in to get the pockets let out.

-Alex

NLCS Game 2 Preview

Who: Cardinals (Edwin Jackson) vs Brewers (Shaun Marcum)
When: Monday October 10th at 7:05 pm CST
Where: Miller Park Milwaukee, WI
TV: TBS
Radio: 620 AM WTMJ/540 AM ESPN

The guy who makes those terrible wigs La Russa calls hair must be working overtime after last nights blowup by the Brewers in the 5th in game one of the NLCS. Total team effort and home runs from Fielder and Yuni B. gave the Crew the lead after being down 2 against Jaime Garcia. Greinke scuffled to gain control of the game until he got the lead, then settled in enough to get the job done in the end, and pulling out yet another win at home backed by huge run support. The real key to this game and it's impact on Game 2 will be the Cardinals use, or over use, of their bullpen, which seemed to have someone new warming up every inning.

It took the Cardinals six pitchers to get through the game after Garcia was chased after not recording an out in the 5th. In comparison the Brewers where able to use just 4 pitchers, and keep their bullpen ready for today's game. This mismanagement of pitching, and the fact that none of their relievers got through clean innings save Rzepczynski, gives Milwaukee the edge in a game that features a pitcher in Edwin jackson that has a history of being on or very off. While his last start against Milwaukee went well, only giving up 1 run in 7 innings, this is the post season. Jackson got into a groove getting to face .500 or below teams, and now he has serious pressure to perform at a high level that he may be uncapable of.

In almost 200 innings between STL and TOR, Jackson has senn his K/9 dip from previous years to 6.67, which, given he is in essence a power pitcher, seems odd. He has posted up his best WAR over the past two seasons, each time it was 3.8, so Jackson may finally have found his style of pitching and is working hitters more than just trying to wildly strike someone out. Paralleling him is Marcum, who after a very successful season is trying to win his 1st post season game.

Marcum is as solid as you can ask for. Up until September Shaun was the go to guy to get a win on the road, but his recent scuffles coming into the post season have left a bad taste in some Brewers fans mouths. But, how can you be nervous of an alrady established pitcher who has beat his career averages in BB/9 (2.56), HR/9 (0.99), ERA (3.54), and FIP (3.73) as well as finally breaking the 200 inning plateau. The two guys pitching tonight are a wash almost with the slight edge given to Marcum. The only way Jackson will find a win tonight is if he gets Milwaukee to hit a lot of ground balls (43.8 GB%) and keeps them off balance enough to be able to eat innings.

With a righty on the mound we should see Morgan back in the two hole, and with the way Hairston is swinging the bat the bottom of the order will be happy to have him slide into 6th. The key to the Brewers winning today will be to get after Jackson early and throw him off his game. Patient eyes will be a huge factor since Jackson can put some serious movement on some of his pitches. If they get to him early La Russa will have no choice but to dip into that pen again, which will set up a great opportunity Game 3 against their best pitcher. The pressure is on the Cardinals to win, but beast mode may have to pop their bubble and send them on packing to St. Louis.

-Alex

VFBC Staff 2011 NL Award Ballots

Jason

NL MVP:
1. Ryan Braun
2. Matt Kemp
3. Justin Upton
4. Prince Fielder
5. Joey Votto
6. Troy Tulowitzki
7. Clayton Kershaw
8. Albert Pujols
9. Roy Halladay
10. Jose Reyes

NL Cy Coung:
1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Roy Halladay
3. Cliff Lee
4. Cole Hamels
5. John Axford

NL ROY:
1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Freddie Freeman
3. Wilson Ramos

Alex

NL MVP:
1. Ryan Braun
2. Matt Kemp
3. Prince Fielder
4. Clayon Kershaw
5. Albert Pujols
6. Roy Halladay
7. Joey Votto
8. Cliff Lee
9. Justin Upton
10. Craig Kimbrel

NL Cy Young:
1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Roy Halladay
3. Cliff Lee
4. Ian Kennedy
5. Cole Hamels

NL ROY:
1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Freddie Freeman
3. Brandon Beachy

Brad

NL MVP:

1. Ryan Braun

2. Matt Kemp

3. Prince Fielder

4. Lance Berkman

5. Troy Tulowitzki

6. Albert Pujols

7. Justin Upton

8. Joey Votto

9. Shane Victorino

10. Clayton Kershaw

NL Cy Young:

1. Clayton Kershaw

2. Roy Halladay

3. Cliff Lee

4. Ian Kennedy

5. John Axford

NL ROY:

1. Craig Kimbrel

2. Freddie Freeman

3. Vance Worley

Milwaukee's Survivorman

Les Stroud could learn a thing or two from Milwaukee's talented young backstop Jonathan Lucroy. Not only has he found success this year in the big leagues, but he has survived hitting in the virtual wasteland that has been the bottom of the Brewers order at times. Production has been scarce being surrounded by the likes of Mark Kotsay, Carlos Gomez, Yuni B, and a strewn field of other pinch hitters, pitchers, and wayward bats. But, through it all Lucroy has managed a very productive season, making the times the other hitters find water in the desert that more effective.

Starting with McGehee the bottom of the order has been trying to find it's way this year. Some bats like Casey (.237) and Yuni (.252) have had success in small doses, each contributing 121 RBIs to the Brewers game. Each have been efficient at times, but each have still gone on long slumps where it seems that each at bat is another out, or more. Mark Kotsay (.260) has been the marginal hitter we all knew he would be, and Carlos Gomez's .215 average isn't helping anybody out. The only bat that has had success around Lucroy is Nyjer Morgan, but now he has cemented a spot in the two hole, and Lucroy is once again left to tow the line.

Through all the roster tweaks, and player shuffles Lucroy has still managed a .278 average, and 56 RBIs, over 381 at bats in 2011. Much of his production is due to a very healthy line drive rate (24.4%) and a very luck driven swing with his BABIP sitting at an unholy .335. This is nothing new though. Lucroy has posted BABIPs and averages higher than he has this season in the minors while striking out less. The sharp rise in K% from 14.8% in his first big league season in 2010 to 21.5% this year may have everything to do with it being his first full season of work at starting catcher. He is handling a top level pitching staff, and is playing one of the most physically demanding positions in baseball. But, Lucroy may just be pressing at times because of the hitters around him, and the opportunities he has.

This should be the beginning of a long illustrious career for the Brewers catcher. With 11 home runs this season so far he could be a possible 15-20 guy next year. What he will have to work on is his eye and taking more walks, but that will come with maturity. Because Lucroy has always maintained a good batting average when given regular time he won't hurt the Crew there as long as his contact rates don't continue a downward trend. With steady rises in OBP, and maintaining an edge of power, Lucroy should continue to find success in Milwaukee. So, the next time you think we are stuck in the desert remember that Luke will lead us to water, even if we are far from home.

-Alex

Lessons Learned In 2011

After the Brewers loss to the Dodgers on Thursday at the hands of Clayton Kershaw I got to thinking. This team is heading into the last month of regular season and is really showing what it can do without cornerstone second baseman Rickie Weeks. Roenicke has been able to do one thing so far, win ball games consistently. But, these outings against top quality pitching, not so nice to remember. The Brewers have thrived on offense, yet some ugly numbers jump out at you if you look at some key matchups this year.

When approaching this I decided I would use starts from the best pitcher(s) on teams we will likely see if we make the playoffs/WS. For my purposes I went with pitchers from the Phillies (Halladay, Lee), Braves (Jurrjens, Hanson, Hudson), Red Sox (Lester), Yankees (Sabathia), Giants (Lincecum, Cain), and the D-backs (Kennedy). The Brewers are 4-6 in 11 starts against top pitching talent from this pool. Opposing pitchers are holding hitters to 2.36 runs per start, a drop in production of almost 2 runs from their season average. The only no decision was in a Cliff Lee start against Narveson on April 20th which the Brewers ended up losing in the 8th on a Shane Victorino home run. So, this loss Thursday against Kershaw really didn't surprise me.
What is surprising is the plate discipline the team has shown when facing these elite pitchers. Almost every player on my list is at least making opposing pitchers sing for their supper. The lineup is striking out an average of 5.36 times per start, which given the talent pool of K hungry pitchers seems rather low. Only Sabathia managed to get double digit strike outs against the club. Patience will be vital if we face these pitchers again in Oct/Nov, especially the NL/AL East matchups.

Jurrjens just came back from injury and Hanson is currently down for the Braves, but their starting five may rival the Phillies with a superior bullpen. The Giants achillies heel will be their offense so no problems there, three pitchers threw shut outs against the Brewers, and none of them were by Giants starters. Arizona seems interesting with Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy tearing it up, but I just don't see that team going the distance. The Phillies and Braves still remain the best competition for the Crew in the NL, just like they were April 1st. Philadelphia is the only team from this list we play again in the regular season, so look for this late September matchup to be a good barometer of how the Brewers will fare in October.

Chemistry is something not shown as a stat in the box score, but when watching games pre and post ASB you can see a visible difference in how this team is playing. The Brewers own the 4th best record in baseball, and they have proven that they can win every way possible. The hits, walks, and drop off in strike outs are there, so a lot of it just comes down to timely hitting, and maybe a little luck. But, when you're on a roll like these boys in Milwaukee are sometimes that call goes your way, or a fielder takes the wrong angle, or Prince smashes one over the wall with the bases loaded.

-Alex

Calling All Gloves, Randy Is Up

Going into 2011 there were a lot of new faces, especially on the pitching side, and with that came expectations and questions. Who is our number one now that we have three elite pitchers? The debate slightly cooled after Greinke's injury, but was refueled in May when Greinke returned and Marcum/Gallardo had been really heating up after some April scuffles. Now all the talk has shifted to Greinke, posting 44 Ks and only 10 walks since the All-Star break. Through all this one thing has remained a constant, Randy Wolf. While a number 4 pitcher on a staff isn't looked at as the guy you can put out there and not worry about, Wolf has proven time and time again that his experience, and his knack for being backed by great defense, are invaluable to the Brewers as we head down the final stretch.

Before the break the only pitcher with a lower ERA than Wolf (3.65) was Marcum (3.39), and Wolf pitched almost 7 more innings than Marcum in that span. He also held opponents to a .259 average which was good for 3rd behind Greinke (.258). After the break Wolf has been following the same path with his 2.34 ERA good for second best among starters behind Greinke (1.56) and again has pitched more innings than any starter. All other stats are comparable as well, so I think we should see much of the same from Wolf going into late August.

A few areas are troubling when you look at his body of work, the first of which being FIP. FIP, for those that don't know, stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, so basically things that the pitcher is accountable for are the only things factored into this equation (HR, BB, K, IP). Randy Wolf has a club leading 3.30 ERA, but his FIP sits almost 100 points ahead of that at 4.25. Why the huge gap? Well to put it kindly some would say Randy Wolf is "lucky". I would disagree and say that Wolf is a product of what he does, and the supporting cast behind him. There will be fly balls, but his 8.3% HR/FB ratio is actually below the league average of 10.6%, so more often than not he will give the defense a shot at the ball before he let's one leave the park.

We know a couple things right away when talking about Wolf, number one is he is not going to surprise anyone with a 95 mph fastball, maybe a 55 mph curve, and number two is he has always been a contact pitcher. The sooner people realize these facts the better it will be for all of us. When you become blind to other stats and focus on ERA, like a lot of casual fans do, you miss the big picture that is Randy Wolf. He has given up more hits than any starter, and has the highest WHIP (1.25) since the break, which explains the large gap between his ERA and his FIP. His .281 BABIP isn't a very lucky number, actually the opposite, so Wolf does and always will need good defense behind him. Last night against the Dodgers was a prime example of this style of play. Wolf walked 5 and earned himself 4 double plays and a triple play for his efforts. This was an exaggerated version of what I am talking about, but the results are there if the defense shows up.

Wolf is what he is, a rare breed, an often looked for but seldom found product. Without a doubt I can honestly say that I would be hard pressed to find a better number 4 on a staff not named the Phillies, in the entire league. Wolf gives you veteran leadership who is active with players and media, a personality that positively effects the clubhouse, and 30-35 starts in a season that you don't have to worry about as a fan or manager if you give him a good defensive effort to back him up. His pitches aren't pretty and he may not have swagger, but Randy Wolf will always be there when you need him. I think it's time to revive the Wolf Pack in Milwaukee, who's with me!

-Alex

How To Succeed In The NL Central Without Really Trying

We all knew going into this stretch of games what the Brewers had to do. With the best win percentage at home in baseball, and a three team nine game homestand against the NL Central, the Crew needed to protect their slim lead on the division. Two series against the offensive juggernauts that are Chicago and Houston where the tasty looking ones in this stretch, and with St. Louis to wrap it up the Brewers could find themselves in great position going into August. So far in 7 of 9 games the Brewers have had 7 wins, including a classic last night when Milwaukee took on the Cardinals for the first game in the series. So how have the Brewers done it? To answer that lets delve into the stats sandwich that is this weeks box scores.

Take a look at the stats and you would see a lot of close games, small scores, and a lot of boxed zeros, so hitting must not have been that great right? The exact opposite seems to be true when the stats are stretched out over the span of those seven wins. Using batters with a minimum of 15 ABs over the past week as a guide Brewers hitters have a .328 average. They have also smashed the ball collecting 14 doubles and 30 RBIs in the process. The Brewers were also aggressive on the bases, not with stealing bases, but with forcing the opposing defense to be uncomfortable whenever guys got on. The "Roenicke Effect" seems to be working and other teams are trying to anticipate what the runner is doing even when they aren't doing anything. With everybody contributing, most on different days, the pitching staff had it's work cut out for it, but did they ever deliver.

The starting pitching has an ERA of 1.66 during the current 7 game win streak including two shut outs thrown by Wolf and Gallardo. But, it doesn't stop with the starting five because the bullpen, since the acquisition of K-Rod, seems to be a whole different animal and I am beginning to wonder if we even need a lefty in the pen. Batters who have had the unfortunate luck to face this staff over the past week are batting just .218 against starting pitching, and a meager .125 against the bullpen. K-Rod and Estrada are the only two bullpen pitchers to give up any runs since the beginning of the homestand, 1 apiece. Starting pitching has been economical as well, averaging 104 pitches a game, mostly due to the stellar work of our bullpen arms.

The one thing that the Crew still doesn't have is a semi reliable bench, with Kottaras' RBI and Run being the most stats produced from the dugout. With the addition of Hairston the bench should improve. Hairston should not only be a boost since he can play any position except pitcher and catcher, but he is a good influence in the clubhouse. Reading through Nationals blogs and posts after the trade there wasn't a bad thing said about him. The guy is a perfect fit that I for one didn't see coming here. While Hairston isn't known for power, he is a good defender and a reliable bat. This season his batting average (.266) is almost 100 points lower than his OBP (.340) so he should be a good play when we face lefties to platoon with Morgan, and have some chances to get on in front of the big boys.

My favorite moment this week was that we finally got to Ryan Dempster with some great pitching from Loe and a hot bat from Braun who went 3-4, a double for Hart, and a surprising 2 run triple from Casey. If we played the Cubs every week Casey McGehee would be MVP of the NL, maybe the training staff should work out some Waterboy type situation and make him picture every team as the Cubs. Didn't take much to beat Chicago in the second game as Greinke had a very Greinke-like performance and pitched 6 2/3 scoreless, and a Fielder home run was the difference. Biggest loss of the season as Weeks went down with a bad sprain that will take him out of play for 2-6 weeks. Luckily Melvin brought in Felipe Lopez for next to nothing and should be a serviceable option at second. Good outing by Marcum, and Braun hitting a triple short of the cycle, beat the Cubs and completed the sweep of the baby bears.
*Any stats from here on out mentioned in games played against the Houston Astros will be taken lightly, just as their offense will be the rest of the season. Crew sweeps away the garbage and heads to St. Louis to complete the NL Central trifecta.

In a great pitching matchup with Carpenter and Greinke on the mound the Brewers came out on top to snag the first win from under the Cards and put themselves up 3.5 games in 1st place heading into August. I'm no doctor, but people are not supposed to sweat like that Carpenter. Am I the only one who didn't need to see that in super slow mo? Now, the first two series are should wins while the Cardinals series is a must win, but even with the lack of completion this week these are all divisional games. Everyone of these series counts no matter what the teams record is we face. Complacency has been a trademark of this team in recent memory, so here's to hoping they keep having fun in 2011. Let's keep it rolling Crew so we can see more interviews from the professional, Tony Gumbel.

-Alex

I Gotta Go: A Nyjer Morgan Introspective

Friday night in San Francisco the Giants fans made a big deal about something outfielders do everyday, he threw up the horns to signify two outs. But, as Tony Plush is want to do, he threw an extra underhanded slam to the fans in the stands which was misunderstood as a rude gesture. Cascades of boos fell on deaf ears as both Brewers players and staff saw nothing unusual going on. Morgan does this sort of thing, he riles people up, he plays at a high level of energy, and he doesn't hide his emotions. Should a guy be faulted for having a non-stop motor, I don't think so, but incontinent umpire Joe West disagreed and made his way to the Brewers dugout to talk to Roenicke about it. My question is do teams hate Morgan for his attitude or his play?

We all know there are bad boys in baseball. There are guys who make it their mission, Milton Bradley, to be the center of attention for the wrong reasons, and that I don't agree with. Now granted Morgan has had his share of on field incidents. Last year he cussed out some Marlins fans and took on Chris Volstad, which is a feat unto itself considering the Height/Weight difference of 8"/56 lbs. But, what he brings to the table when given the chance he has always produced. Since 2007 when he came up with the Pirates he hasn't posted a average lower than .294. Morgan also has two MLB seasons in which he stole 42 and 34 bases, which makes him all the more valuable these days after Carlos "Flash" Gomez went down with a broken clavicle. With Braun also still coming back from injury I am sure Nyjer will get his shots to run the rest of the way, much to the chagrin of the rest of the NL.

I mentioned this on episode 21 of the podcast, but the Brewers have also done something with Morgan that other teams didn't try, they embraced him. The city of Milwaukee took him in and made him our own. When you are allowed to be yourself it will take pressures off of you that are recorded on the stat sheets, but not always understood. But, the results are showing so far with Roenicke's approach and Morgan is putting up career numbers at the plate. T-Plush is putting together a nice slash line of .326/.359/.472 for a guy that wasn't even a thought until two weeks before the season started. Morgan seems a perfect fit to be in the lead off spot, however with a 2.3 BB%, and his sometimes scary bunting ability, the two hole should be a productive spot for him, and most likely his home for the remainder of 2011. Morgan also has a career high .145 ISO, and his 2.2 WAR is better than every player in the starting lineup, aside from Fielder (3.4) and Braun (4.1).

So, I pose this question to you readers. Do you think that Morgan does things to blatantly antagonize other teams, or do other teams/fans/league react negatively to his actions because he is not hiding his excitement? I always say that it's not cocky if you can back it up, and Morgan has done just that so far for the Brewers, and I will continue to defend his actions until I see otherwise. The guy is having fun in a game that may have lost some of that at times. He brings an energy to the field that Milwaukee hasn't seen in a long time, and he is a clubhouse boost not cancer for the Crew yet still gets labeled as such by outside franchises and broadcasters. Don't be upset that your teams fail at Plushdamentals, not everyone can play like a gentleman. I gotta go!

-Alex

Yo's Woes

After the absolute shelling of Gallardo last night at the hands of the Rockies marked the third time in his last seven starts that he failed to pitch past the 4th. Gallardo came into this season not with lofty expectations, but just to do what he has been doing to NL bats since his call up in 2007. But, this year he has had a definite split personality when it comes to missing bats, and especially so when it comes to road games.

Gallardo raised his ERA to 4.08 after giving up 6 to the Rockies in 4 innings, that puts him at second to last in ERA among Brewers starters, surpassed only by hard luck Chris Narveson (4.75). His WHIP, 1.41, also slides into 4th place among starters with the Narvdog again bringing up the rear. So far this year Gallardo leads the team in strike outs at 106, but also leads the team in hits after giving up 127. He obviously still has the stuff, so why is it that sometimes he just flat out loses it?

Gallardo hasn't lost any velocity on any of his pitches over previous years aside from his change, which he seems to be throwing 2 mph slower this season. So, it really comes down to placement of pitches, and maybe to a degree pitch selection, that is troubling Yo. Opponents are making contact 67.5% of the time outside the strike zone, which is more than 7% over his average. Contact% is also up to 81.2% of the time, a 2% increase over average. So, it seems that his main problem this year is location rather than stuff.

Gallardo isn't a victim of luck either as his BABIP, while high (.313), is close to his average. Also his line drive rates are down, and he is posting a career low in ground balls at 48.8%. But, giving up over 3 walks per nine, and seeing his K/9 diminish to a very average 7.86, we may have to endure some tough times ahead. While Gallardo hasn't been terrible, he has had some really bad starts, and so far in July his ERA is an even 5.00. The only month he did well, or dominated I should say, was May where he posted a 2.25 ERA. He has also has major troubles on the road with an ERA of 5.02 away from the Keg.

Maybe this season we will have to endure a little rollercoaster ride at times with Gallardo, but if he can find his groove again, and work on pitch selection/location I think that Yo will be just fine. Watching him give up 11 hits last night was hard to watch, but just remember that 5 games out of his last 10 starts he gave up 5 hits or less and had a combined 1.33 ERA in those games. So, it's not a matter of Yo being lost, he just needs to find his way home.

-Alex

Questioning The Unquestionable

After dominating the NL since he was brought over from Toronto Shaun Marcum has shown he was worth everything the Brewers gave up to get the big righty. After going down with a hip strain on June 17th Brewer Nation held it's collective breath as we awaited the news on his most recent injury. Initial reports say that he is fine and Marcum expects to make his next start against the Yankees, a club that he has seen more than any other pitcher on the Brewers staff. The Crew is 12-10 in June, including a 20 game stretch in which the Brewers did not have a day off, and pulled one of the toughest interleague schedules in recent memory. We need Marcum healthy to compete with elite offenses as we have seen, so is this most recent injury a bump in the road, or a glimpse of things to come.

In his entire time with the Blue Jays as a starter Marcum never went over 200 IP. He came closest last year with 195.1, but aside from that he has gone about 150 IP in 2007 and 2008. As it stands right now Marcum has thrown 94.2 IP, and looks to eclipse the 200 IP mark for the first time in his career. Not only is he looking to set that benchmark, but he is also posting career lows in HR/9 (0.86) and HR/FB (7.7%). He has also shown that he can control a game, striking out roughly 8 per 9 and walking just over 2. Given that he has been out performing his averages most baseball fans would expect a correction, but Marcum's problems may lie in his health and not his stats.Following his breakout campaign for Toronto in 2007 things were looking up for Marcum. He had just had his highest pitch totals of his career, went 12-6, and posted a 1.4 WAR on the season. But, just like Icarus who flew too close to the sun, Marcum was shut down and would eventually have Tommy Johns surgery to repair his wing. Marcum did not pitch again in the majors until opening day 2010 and got his first win after TJS against the Oakland A's. The rest is history as Marcum had his best season, posted career numbers across the board, and had arguably his best win of his career, a contract with the Brewers.

So far Marcum is the ace that we all thought he was, and I am in no way trying to shake any confidence in Shaun, but in baseball we always look at history. Marcum has a list of injuries and ailments that seem to be red flags when it comes to IP. As I said before Marcum should reach 200 innings if he stays healthy the rest of the year, but the warnings should not be ignored. His ERA (2.95), WHIP (1.06), and opponent BA (.212) are nice to look at, but don't be surprised if Marcum has another injury as he eclipses 200. ZIPS updated estimates has Marcum pitching about 175 innings, which would be about 11 starts, and matching his win total from 2007. If he's healthy there is no doubt in my mind he will go the distance, and be able to help the Brewers in the post-season push.

-Alex

Casey On The Lookout For Lost Bat

With his bad showing at the plate this season, and questions about his lack of value, Casey McGehee is making fans breath a sigh of relief that a contract extension wasn't signed. I am not one of them, and some fans should look past the initial numbers this season and try to remember what happened in previous years. This isn't some flash in the pan, got hot for two weeks, rookie call-up, as McGehee proved in over 1000 PAs the past two seasons where he boasts 170 RBIs and a batting average of .293. That is as consistent production from third base as you can ask for, but this season has been completely opposite from past seasons.

When I first took a good look at McGehee's stat sheet the glaring holes were obvious, like average, on-base, and slugging, but their had to be another story here than just bad mechanics or approach at the plate. Looking a little deeper you can see that his approach is about the same as his average, taking walks 7.8% of the time and striking out about 17% of the time. So, the next place I looked was his contact rates. Is he just swinging at bad pitches, or are players pitching around him? Neither appears to be true either since his O-Swing%/Z-Swing% are only slightly down, about 2%, however his Contact% has gone up and he isn't getting fooled anymore than usual at the plate.

In my mind the two stats that tell the biggest story on McGehee's slump is his BABIP and ISO. McGehee is one of the few batters in the majors to be pretty luck neutral, in that his BABIP is usually within a few points of his actual average, but down from .306 in 2010, he is sitting on a .252 and right now McGehee seems to finally have a black cloud over his head. With higher ground ball rates, and decreases in line drives and fly balls, Casey has seen his power go from an ISO of .179 to a paltry .094. With McGehee's lack of speed, and his usually average to below glove, he needs to find a way to bring his 100+ RBI power back into the Brewers line up. Casey seems to be trying everything to get his power stroke back, like changing his stance or just trying to hit for contact, but his best efforts so far have yielded no results except DPs and groundball outs.

Casey has been trying to work back, getting 3 singles in recent games, yet his average still sits at about .080 for the last week or so, with no production coming out of those singles either. With all these factors taken into effect the only conclusion I can come up with is it is a mental issue, and not so much a fundamentals problem. This guy can hit when he is on, no one would deny that, but is it possible that he is holding himself back at this point instead of settling into the role the Brewers and all fans want him to fill? Maybe it's just a matter of his bat speed being slower than past years, maybe it's pressure to perform at a high level because of the team around him, or maybe he is just the unluckiest player in baseball. One thing I do know is if he doesn't find a way to get on base soon he is going to be dropped in the order as opposing pitchers give Fielder nothing to hit knowing Casey and his .225 average are up next.

I believe Casey will turn things around soon, and while 100+ RBIs is probably out of the question now, 75-80 isn't a long shot if he can figure out his problems at the plate. Long story short: He is a fan favorite who loves playing in Milwaukee and is involved in the community, really those are all intangibles that his stats aren't going to show. Give McGehee a chance and I think he still may surprise us all before it's over.

-Alex