Episode 58 "Gary Glover Edition"

Breakdown of The Show:

1B Situation 0:00-18:00
Break
The Kyle Lohse Conundrum 18:00-35:00
Break
1 maybe 2 Bullpen Spots Up For Grabs 35:00-46:00
Break
News & Notes (Rambling) 46:00-53:00

The Real Solution At First Base

There has been a lot of talks in recent days about how to solve the conundrum at First Base in Milwaukee. Of course the current rumor is that they are moving Cory Hart from Right Field. Right now the situation is an odd platoon of Travis Ishikawa and Taylor Green.  The simple solution should be move George Kottaras over and call up Martin Maldanado. 

Looking at the current situation, I think it is easy enough to see that those options will not work long term. Green while being a top prospect for the organization in some form, he has a career line of .254/.262/.339 in the major leagues, granted in limited work. A first baseman should be able to slug at least .400 and be a major run producer in the lineup. Ishikawa or Trishi doesn’t fit the bill either. In over 300 games played, the first baseman doesn’t even have 20 home runs. In a full season, he has never even produced more than 40 runs. That production will not help an already struggling Brewers lineup. Even playing at a career high level, Trishi still is only hitting .246, well below his career average.

So, move Cory Hart to first base. Makes sense, the Brewers starting right fielder has slugged over .500 each of the last two season, has 20-30 homer power, and has shown he can be a big time run producer in the lineup. There is no doubt in my mind he could be a serviceable first baseman. The real question is who would replace him? Is it worth filling one hole in a starting lineup only to create another? Your options in right field after Hart include, Nyjer Morgan, Carlos Gomez and Norichika Aoki. All are plus defenders, but only Gomez has a truly serviceable arm in right. Morgan and Aoki both have lesser arm strength, and considering your right fielder needs to make the longest throw on the field, they could not play there every day. As late inning fill ins, sure, but not everyday. Next you’re looking at what type of production you want from a right fielder. 

The only right fielder without some pop in the majors is Ichiro. Every other player can hit at least 20 homers and probably slug above .470. Morgan, Gomez and Aoki can’t touch that. Looking at their career slash lines, .283/.343/.366, .244/.292/.361, and in a short sample size .295/.358/.426. None of those lines is the line of a respectable right fielder. 

So without creating another hole, the last option is move George Kottaras over and bring up Martin Maldanado. Kottaras is having a career year. The Brewer should want to capitalize on that and get their best players in the lineup. Hopefully that starts some sort of winning atmosphere when the lineup has a better chance to regularly produce. Kottaras has never had a career slash line of what you would like out of a starting first baseman, but he definitely has power. 

The most games Kottaras has played in a season is 67. In that season he had nine homers and 27 RBI’s. He only had a .396 slugging percentage, but in just 43 hits, 22 of those were for extra bases. That is proof that the lifetime backup catcher can smash. Also, that season Kottaras only had a .203 batting average. Maldanado may be an unproven question mark, but considering it’s a bat that would only be in the lineup every now and again, I can’t imagine it being a large enough factor compared to taking away power or playing an under producing player as a starter every day. I'd rather have a weak bench, than a lineup filled with backups. This is in my mind the most serviceable move for the Brewers to make.

-Brad

Where The Brewers Real Focus Should Be

So we are to a point where the Milwaukee Brewers have done their usual nothing in free agency, much like many other teams, and as big offers go out to big free agents we have to wonder if the Crew will make a big move. If they do, fantastic, but it’s time to stop writing about the hopeful prospects of signing someone like Reyes and talk about what I believe the Brewers should focus on during this offseason.

For starters, the bullpen. One of the big reasons the Brewers were considered such a strong team in the playoffs was their shut down bullpen that ranked 5th in the MLB with a 3.32 ERA, that was much stronger in the second half. Right now the bullpen is a major factor, and can be fixed with a few pieces reassembled. Adding Saito or Hawkins will make for a strong 6th/7th swing man and then finding a power arm by trade, free agency or within the system will help. Still the bullpen could be even stronger with a few more pieces, and Melvin has always been very good at piecing these things together.

Plugging the holes is the next important thing. The obvious ones are there, SS, 1B but then the bench needs to be filled with some experienced starters. Melvin seems stuck on getting Hairston back into the lineup and I have no problem with that. I think 1B will be filled by Gamel and then sign an incentive contract for a 1B who is slightly past their prime, much to the history of Melvin. I think the outfield spot missing on the bench will be filled inside the system, and would love to see a cheap alternative come in at short for Yuni, most likely being Clint Barmes. As far as McGehee’s weak season goes, I think Green on the bench with a possibility of replacing or platooning with Casey would be a cheap resolution and there is your answer with the bench, filling all open spots.

Finally, and I consider this most important, resign at least ONE key starter. I think it is very important to extend this staff beyond the years it is together for. Marcum, Greinke and Wolf are free agents after the year. I think it is easy to let Wolf go, but Greinke and Marcum may leave in free agency. Yovani Gallardo will also leave the team in 2013, completely destroying the staff. I think the Brewers expect to lose two of the aforementioned pitchers internally. It appears they have a desire to get Fiers or Peralta into the rotation and condition them to be a successful part of the 2013 staff. The Brewers also have two first round college picks and Cody Scarpetta. The Brewers don’t have a great history in developing their own pitching talent, especially for the rotation. In fact the only strong success stories come from Gallardo and Sheets.

From my point of view, in order to remain competitive, the Brewers are obligated to resign one of Marcum, Gallardo and Greinke. I think the biggest deal comes in signing Gallardo. It seems like Yo only gets better and better, even though he doesn’t have much to improve. It looks like his value will only increase throughout the years. I would go into finer details, quoting WAR and ERA and wins, but any Brewer fan has noticed Gallardo’s increased dominance inside 4-6 shaky performances a year. If he can limit those big mistake games, Gallardo is going to be poised to make major money. Right now it appears he’s very under the radar and can probably be put on a 5 year contract for $80 MM or less, which is a deal for elite pitching.

Marcum and Greinke then would depart next year. I think Greinke’s comfort level will be increased if the team can compete again, but first the Brewers would need to have another good season, maybe even make the playoffs. Greinke appears ready to stay for comfort, but also wants money. Another playoff run could set the Brewers up for just that. In the coming years the only major piece outside of pitching the Crew will need to replace is Cory Hart, which appears to be easy with the depth of outfield depth in the system. The money can be placed into pitching without large concern in the future, and pitching provides ability to compete for years to come. Marcum will also be considered midmarket when he departs, so if Greinke were to depart, Marcum could probably still be locked in for a similar contract to Gallardo.

This is what I think the team should focus on over the next few months. Signing a few more players for the bullpen, filling the empty roles on the bench and finding a shortstop (everything else seems to be an inside job) and resigning at least one of the star pitchers on the team. Got any disagreements? Challenge me with a comment, and I will get back to you and tell you if you changed my mind or made me more passionate to my plan.

-Brad