The Brewers Are Selling. What's On The Shelves?

This past series against the Reds cemented what almost every fan has known for months, the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers are losers. Yes, it’s true and disappointing, but not only are they losers, they have talent that is good and will be gone soon, or is filling up space in payroll the front office will need to rebuild this team.


So it’s time to take a look at what the Brewers can sell and a few players they should probably think about selling.

Players That Are Available

Zack Greinke- This is the one everyone already knows. Greinke doesn’t want the contract the Brewers are offering right now, so in order to get an immediate return on the pitcher Milwaukee needs to ditch him. This is the most valuable piece they have (obvious statement I know), but most teams won’t pay in top prospects with the new rules of the CBA (restrictions in pick compensation for losing a A or B player). So, unless the Brewers and the team getting Greinke agree to a deal where the other team signs Greinke before a trade is completed I think the Brewers will most likely get AA to A players no higher than top 50 in value. I believe Melvin is looking for better, but might not get it.

Francisco Rodriguez- It’s true he’s the new closer, but K-Rod costs a lot and is gone after this season. Some teams really need a high end reliever at the back end of their bullpen so Rodriguez will probably have some good value, but he is more valuable if the Brewers eat some of his contract. I think a AA pitcher with late inning bullpen pitcher is a great return of K-Rod and something that fills the Crew’s needs for the future.

Nyjer Morgan- With the arrival of Norichika Aoki, I can’t believe Morgan isn’t available. Considering the season Morgan is having, I cannot believe the Brewers can expect much in terms of return for Nyjer. He is cheaper and has another 2 years before he’s a free agent, but considering he isn’t always considered a team player, and has little value outside of defense and speed I think the Brewers could get a mid-level AAA prospect. A role bench player and nothing more.

Players That Are Probably Available

Randy Wolf- The lefty has an option left on his contract and can fill the back end of a rotation. But his value diminished this year with his performance. Not many teams are looking for a starter with an ERA above 5, but his recent performances may have redeemed him to some GM’s. Plus he is probably a lot better as a #5 than most player in the league in that role.

George Kottaras- Every team needs more catching, beside the Brewers. With the arrival of Martin Maldonado the Brewers actually have two plus catchers locked up for a very long time. Teams will probably be interested since he has some pop too, but if they trade Wolf they might need to throw in Kottaras so he has someone to pitch to on his next team.

Kameron Loe- A solid reliever. Probably only low-A return to get anything valuable. Probably a player that could get packaged with someone else.

Players That Should Be Available

Aramis Ramirez- A good investment to start the season but now he’s an old guy eating roster space. Not a rental, still has value and can immediately help a contender. A-Ram is the type of player that can bring back a good return for the Brewers. I don’t think they will sell him because they want a hitter behind Braun.

Corey Hart- See Aramis Ramirez. I think his prominence at first base will make the Brewers much less interested in selling compared to if he was still playing right. If the Brewers sell either of these players it’s only going to be one of them.

If the Team Trades This Guy It’s a Fire Sale

Rickie Weeks- A few years on his contract. When he’s on he’s one of the most valuable second baseman in the league. If he was traded last year, he could get a Dan Uggla type haul. This year he could bring back some nice pieces but nothing completely mind blowing. Unless Melvin can do a great sell job it’s probably better to wait until his value is back up. Maybe even this offseason.

-Brad

The Real Solution At First Base

There has been a lot of talks in recent days about how to solve the conundrum at First Base in Milwaukee. Of course the current rumor is that they are moving Cory Hart from Right Field. Right now the situation is an odd platoon of Travis Ishikawa and Taylor Green.  The simple solution should be move George Kottaras over and call up Martin Maldanado. 

Looking at the current situation, I think it is easy enough to see that those options will not work long term. Green while being a top prospect for the organization in some form, he has a career line of .254/.262/.339 in the major leagues, granted in limited work. A first baseman should be able to slug at least .400 and be a major run producer in the lineup. Ishikawa or Trishi doesn’t fit the bill either. In over 300 games played, the first baseman doesn’t even have 20 home runs. In a full season, he has never even produced more than 40 runs. That production will not help an already struggling Brewers lineup. Even playing at a career high level, Trishi still is only hitting .246, well below his career average.

So, move Cory Hart to first base. Makes sense, the Brewers starting right fielder has slugged over .500 each of the last two season, has 20-30 homer power, and has shown he can be a big time run producer in the lineup. There is no doubt in my mind he could be a serviceable first baseman. The real question is who would replace him? Is it worth filling one hole in a starting lineup only to create another? Your options in right field after Hart include, Nyjer Morgan, Carlos Gomez and Norichika Aoki. All are plus defenders, but only Gomez has a truly serviceable arm in right. Morgan and Aoki both have lesser arm strength, and considering your right fielder needs to make the longest throw on the field, they could not play there every day. As late inning fill ins, sure, but not everyday. Next you’re looking at what type of production you want from a right fielder. 

The only right fielder without some pop in the majors is Ichiro. Every other player can hit at least 20 homers and probably slug above .470. Morgan, Gomez and Aoki can’t touch that. Looking at their career slash lines, .283/.343/.366, .244/.292/.361, and in a short sample size .295/.358/.426. None of those lines is the line of a respectable right fielder. 

So without creating another hole, the last option is move George Kottaras over and bring up Martin Maldanado. Kottaras is having a career year. The Brewer should want to capitalize on that and get their best players in the lineup. Hopefully that starts some sort of winning atmosphere when the lineup has a better chance to regularly produce. Kottaras has never had a career slash line of what you would like out of a starting first baseman, but he definitely has power. 

The most games Kottaras has played in a season is 67. In that season he had nine homers and 27 RBI’s. He only had a .396 slugging percentage, but in just 43 hits, 22 of those were for extra bases. That is proof that the lifetime backup catcher can smash. Also, that season Kottaras only had a .203 batting average. Maldanado may be an unproven question mark, but considering it’s a bat that would only be in the lineup every now and again, I can’t imagine it being a large enough factor compared to taking away power or playing an under producing player as a starter every day. I'd rather have a weak bench, than a lineup filled with backups. This is in my mind the most serviceable move for the Brewers to make.

-Brad

Episode 43 "Doug Jones Edition"

Breakdown of The Show:

Small Ball & Bunting 0:00-17:00
Break
Dynamic Catching Duo 17:00-31:00
Break
Hot Pitching Prospects 31:30-49:00
Break
Chalet Award Winner/News & Notes 49:30-1:01

Backup Catcher

With the Brewers signing of Gregg Zaun and the departure of Jason Kendall, we know who the starting catcher will be in 2010. But when Mike Rivera was not tendered a contract before the deadline to do so, it left a big question mark as to who will be the backup catcher in 2010 and get around 60 starts behind the plate. The Brewers have three options going into spring training. Prospects Jonathan Lucroy and Angel Salome, or recently claimed off waivers from Boston George Kottaras.

Lucroy had a very nice season at AA Huntsville in 2009 and put up a good line of .267/.380/.418, 9 HR and 66 RBI's. On defense Lucroy threw out 40% of base stealer's and had a .991 fielding % with 7 errors. Lucroy had started 2009 as the Brewers #2 catching prospect behind Angel Salome, but after his strong season for Huntsville as well as a very good showing in the AFL (.310/.354/.483, 2 HR and 10 RBI's), Lucroy has jumped Salome in many fans minds as well as the Brewers organizations mind as the #1 catching prospect and more then likely should be the starter in 2011.

Salome regressed some in 2009 while playing at AAA Nashville after having a monster year in 2008 at AA Huntsville, but he also battled some injuries playing in only 82 games. His line was .286/.334/.413, 6 HR and 44 RBI's. On defense Salome threw out just 30% of base stealer's with a fielding % of .976 and 10 errors. The thought seemed to be that Salome was better on offense while Lucroy was better on defense, but it seems that Lucroy is catching up on offense and still the better defender and that is why he has jumped Salome.

George Kottaras was claimed off waivers early this offseason after playing 45 games for the Boston Red Sox in 2009. His line was .237/.308/.387, 1 HR and 10 RBI's. Defensively Kottaras threw out just 16% of base stealer's with a fielding % of .992 and 8 errors. He was used often as the catcher for knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. Kottaras like Gregg Zaun is a switch hitter at the plate.

So there you have the three candidates. Kottaras has something the other two don't, a good chunk of big league experience. But Lucroy and Salome have more talent and more future potential. It sounds as if it will be an open competition between the three and whoever performs best in spring may break camp with the job. As of right now I would like it to be either Lucroy or Kottaras. Lucroy could use a season as the backup learning the ropes behind Zaun before taking over in 2011 as the starter. If they don't go that route I would like to see Kottaras get it, Lucroy start at AAA and Salome traded. Stay tuned.