Brent Suter, Brewers Vs Cubs 7/28/17

It was a game in late July, but last nights game vs the Cubs at Miller Park felt like a playoff game. As I watched the game with friends at my neighbors house everyone watched it with the intensity of a playoff game, hanging on every pitch. The atmosphere at Miller Park through the TV was electric and felt like a game with it all on the line in October. The Brewers came into the game after a BRUTAL 2-8 East Coast road trip that saw them lose their grip on 1st Place in the NL Central and actually fall 1.5 games behind the Cubs. You have to give it up for Brent Suter. He was outstanding. Easily the best start of his career. 7 shutout innings, 5 K, 1 BB, only game up 4 hits and had a Game Score of 73. Suter showed some serious #want and #rig on the mound in a game the Brewers desperately needed to win and needed a strong start and with the offense only scoring 2 runs, the margin for error was thin. Suter has now started 7 games this season and has been really good in 5 of them. And one of the two he wasn't so good in, was the game he had to start in an emergency vs the Cardinals when Brandon Woodruff hurt his hamstring in pre game warmups. What I'm getting at here is that Brent Suter has earned his right to stay in the Brewers rotation once guys like Garza and Anderson come off the DL. Once those two guys are back healthy it should be a rotation of Nelson/Anderson/Garza/Davies/Suter. Junior Guerra should go to the bullpen (where he could actually be pretty good) once everyone is back healthy.

Episode 57 "Francisco Rodriguez Edition"

Breakdown of The Show:

Hart to Have Knee Surgery, Faith In Gamel? 0:00-17:00
Break
Rotation/Bullpen Take Shape 17:00-39:00
Break
Brewers In WBC 39:00-49:00
Break
News & Notes 49:00-1:00:00

Episode 56 "Jamie Easterly Edition"

Breakdown of The Show:

Hot Stove/Winter Meetings (0:00-38:00)

- Acquire Burke Badenhop in trade

- Sign LHP Travis Webb to Minor League Deal

- Who is still out in SP market

- Who is still out in RP market

Break

News & Notes (38:00-1:00:00)

- Counsell staying

- Brewers upset w/ Nashville Stadium

- Weeks back to leadoff?

- Gamel's role with club?

Episode 51 "Jim Henderson Edition"

Breakdown of The Show:

Greinke For Segura/Hellweg/Pena 0:00-18:30
Break
Bullpen Goes From Bad To Total Joke 18:30-29:00
Break
Rotation Rest Of Season? 29:00-43:00
Break
Preview/Around NL Central/Chalet Award Winner 43:00-51:00

Episode 43 "Doug Jones Edition"

Breakdown of The Show:

Small Ball & Bunting 0:00-17:00
Break
Dynamic Catching Duo 17:00-31:00
Break
Hot Pitching Prospects 31:30-49:00
Break
Chalet Award Winner/News & Notes 49:30-1:01

VFBC Podcast Episode 38 "Matt Wise Edition"

Breakdown of The Show:

Starting Rotation Preview 0:00-15:00

Break

Bullpen Preview 16:30-26:30

Break

Guest Interview: Jaymes Langrehr from Disciples of Uecker 27:30-52:00

Break

Catchers Preview/Wrap Up 53:00-1:03

VFBC Podcast Episode 29 "Chris Bosio Edition"

Breakdown of The Show:

Braun joins 30/30 Club, Batting Title/MVP Ahead? :00-16:17
Break
Lining Up Playoff Rotation 17:32-31:46
Break
Minor League Wrap 32:33-49:40
Break
Preview/Around NL Central/Chalet Award Winner 50:39-1:03:33

VFBC Podcast Episode 27 "Brady Clark Edition"

Breakdown of The Show:

Road Woes Gone :00-12:49
Break
11' Brewers Similar to 04' Red Sox 14:01-29:53
Break
Starting 5 all 10+ Wins 31:10-42:58
Break
Preview/Around NL Central/Chalet Award Winner 44:15-56:22

Milwaukee's Four Aces

At the beginning of the MLB season, there were rants and raves around the baseball world about the pitching staff in Philadelphia. After all the Phillies had a formidable staff starting with one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last 20 years in Roy Halladay and followed it with Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Phillies’ homegrown ace Cole Hamels. It’s hard to argue against the idea that this set of pitchers is one of the most complete staffs that has been seen in baseball. The Phillies have three legitimate Cy Young candidates and are currently the best team in MLB as far as wins go.

The Brewers were considered the second best staff but were a staff of more than capable two slot starters. And Milwaukee and Philly both filled those roles well heading into the All-Star break, but something happened to Milwaukee that changed the shape of pitching in the NL around the break, the addition of Francisco Rodriguez. Since that point it seems that the Brewers starters have a new determination to pitch above their ability on paper and carry leads into late innings where a fierce Brewer bullpen has made it near impossible for teams to put a dent into the Brewers team ERA past inning 6.

Since the All-Star break, the Brewers actually have the best team ERA in the MLB at 2.89, where Philly sits at 3.27. Granted the dominate bullpen has assisted that ERA to become the best in baseball since the middle of July, but the Brewers staff has certainly assisted that mark helping the team go 32-11 in that mark (6 wins better than Philadelphia).

Possibly the only thing making the Brewers better than K-Rod could have done, is the absolute dominance by ace Zack Greinke. Greinke’s second half numbers have been past astounding, with a 6-2 record and a 2.35 ERA despite a 7 run outing, he has been the Major League’s best pitcher during that time, making it feel like a second coming of CC Sabathia in Milwaukee, carrying the Brewers down the stretch into the best playoff run in franchise history. Greinke’s absolute destruction of oppositions can be shown at his impressive 1.01 WHIP and .208 Opponents BA.

Greinke has even been better than the ungodly destructive Roy Halladay. Halladay, although nearly as good carries a 4-2 record with a 2.91 ERA, .6 points above Greinke’s in that same time span. Halladay has been a bit more touchable during that time with a 1.17 WHIP and a .271 opponent batting average. Halladay is a notorious inning eater as a pitcher, but has 20 innings less than Greinke since the break in one less start.

The rest of Milwaukee’s staff has been fantastic in the same period. Yovani Gallardo has carried a dominant line of 5-3 with a 2.59 ERA, 54 K’s in 59 IP and a WHIP of 1.02, marking his territory as the second ace in the Brewers’ staff. Randy Wolf has carried a stunning line of 5-2 with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 55.1 innings. While Shawn Marcum, the hero of the first half for Milwaukee has a pedestrian (in comparison) stat line of 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA and a WHIP of 1.13 in just 50.2 IP.

When you compare this to the Phillies, the Brewers’ staff lines up just a tad better. Cliff Lee has actually been the Phillie closest to Greinke with a 5-1 record and a 2.40 ERA, Hamels follows very close to Marcum at a 2-3 record but a 3.60 ERA (with some time on the DL) and the winning edge comes in when Oswalt starts going 2-2 with a 3.71 ERA.

Looking at this, should the NL come down to a fight between the Phillies and Brewers in a 7 game CS series you would feel great. Especially with Milwaukee’s unbeatable home record, the Phillies seemed backed against a wall.

It’s time to stop giving the Phillies national recognition and realize, the Brewers over the last 43 games are the best team in baseball, and lined up to be the best team in the MLB playoffs. It’s time for Milwaukee to get optimistic of their baseball team.

-Brad

Lessons Learned In 2011

After the Brewers loss to the Dodgers on Thursday at the hands of Clayton Kershaw I got to thinking. This team is heading into the last month of regular season and is really showing what it can do without cornerstone second baseman Rickie Weeks. Roenicke has been able to do one thing so far, win ball games consistently. But, these outings against top quality pitching, not so nice to remember. The Brewers have thrived on offense, yet some ugly numbers jump out at you if you look at some key matchups this year.

When approaching this I decided I would use starts from the best pitcher(s) on teams we will likely see if we make the playoffs/WS. For my purposes I went with pitchers from the Phillies (Halladay, Lee), Braves (Jurrjens, Hanson, Hudson), Red Sox (Lester), Yankees (Sabathia), Giants (Lincecum, Cain), and the D-backs (Kennedy). The Brewers are 4-6 in 11 starts against top pitching talent from this pool. Opposing pitchers are holding hitters to 2.36 runs per start, a drop in production of almost 2 runs from their season average. The only no decision was in a Cliff Lee start against Narveson on April 20th which the Brewers ended up losing in the 8th on a Shane Victorino home run. So, this loss Thursday against Kershaw really didn't surprise me.
What is surprising is the plate discipline the team has shown when facing these elite pitchers. Almost every player on my list is at least making opposing pitchers sing for their supper. The lineup is striking out an average of 5.36 times per start, which given the talent pool of K hungry pitchers seems rather low. Only Sabathia managed to get double digit strike outs against the club. Patience will be vital if we face these pitchers again in Oct/Nov, especially the NL/AL East matchups.

Jurrjens just came back from injury and Hanson is currently down for the Braves, but their starting five may rival the Phillies with a superior bullpen. The Giants achillies heel will be their offense so no problems there, three pitchers threw shut outs against the Brewers, and none of them were by Giants starters. Arizona seems interesting with Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy tearing it up, but I just don't see that team going the distance. The Phillies and Braves still remain the best competition for the Crew in the NL, just like they were April 1st. Philadelphia is the only team from this list we play again in the regular season, so look for this late September matchup to be a good barometer of how the Brewers will fare in October.

Chemistry is something not shown as a stat in the box score, but when watching games pre and post ASB you can see a visible difference in how this team is playing. The Brewers own the 4th best record in baseball, and they have proven that they can win every way possible. The hits, walks, and drop off in strike outs are there, so a lot of it just comes down to timely hitting, and maybe a little luck. But, when you're on a roll like these boys in Milwaukee are sometimes that call goes your way, or a fielder takes the wrong angle, or Prince smashes one over the wall with the bases loaded.

-Alex

Zack, I Am Sorry

I have to get this apology out of the way now, I have waited to long. And after his stellar 7 inning performance last night I am finally going to apologize to Zack Greinke. Zack, I am sorry for not believing in you. Yes, I was one of the many Brewers fans who were ready to jump ship on Zack Greinke after his horrific start at Yankee Stadium on June 28th in which he went only 2 innings gave up 5 hits, 3 walks and 7 earned runs. He got lit up and his body language told me he didn't really give a shit. His ERA sat at 5.63, yes his K/BB rate was stellar, but he seemed to be getting hit hard and also seemed to have a hard time focusing and getting out of jams. Many said he was just unlucky, I didn't buy it, I was too angry. I went as far to say on the podcast and on twitter that I wondered if the Brewers made the right choice by dealing Escobar, Cain, Jeffress and Odorizzi for Zack.

Well since that day, Zack has made me eat every last bad word I spoke or typed about him. In 9 starts since that blowup against the Yankees, Greinke has gone 6 or more innings (7 or more 4 times) won 5 games and lowered his ERA to a beautiful 3.92. Pretty impressive to lower your ERA from almost 6 to under 4 in just 9 starts. That is how good Zack has been over that stretch. His 151 K's to only 29 BB in 121.2 innings is flat out sick and he now has a 12-4 record to his name. The eye test shows that his stuff is sharper, especially his slider which has been so filthy it almost isn't fair for the opposition. To me he also seems to be focusing more and really buckling down with runners on base pitching out of the stretch. Something that I think he really struggled with during and before that Yankees start.

I should have never doubted that Zack would go on a run and start to pitch more like the guy that won the 2009 AL Cy Young award, but I did. I was frustrated. This was the guy that got everyone so jazzed up about how special this 2011 season could be back in December when Jim Breen of Bernie's Crew broke the news that the Crew had trade for Zack. And I just didn't think he was coming through like he should have. Well, he has and this season has been every bit the special season we anticipated. And if the Crew does hang on to this lead over the Cardinals and win the NL Central, there is no one I would rather have take the ball in game 1 of the NLDS than Zack Greinke (no offense Yovani and Shaun). He's earned it and proved it. He is the true ace.

-Jason

Calling All Gloves, Randy Is Up

Going into 2011 there were a lot of new faces, especially on the pitching side, and with that came expectations and questions. Who is our number one now that we have three elite pitchers? The debate slightly cooled after Greinke's injury, but was refueled in May when Greinke returned and Marcum/Gallardo had been really heating up after some April scuffles. Now all the talk has shifted to Greinke, posting 44 Ks and only 10 walks since the All-Star break. Through all this one thing has remained a constant, Randy Wolf. While a number 4 pitcher on a staff isn't looked at as the guy you can put out there and not worry about, Wolf has proven time and time again that his experience, and his knack for being backed by great defense, are invaluable to the Brewers as we head down the final stretch.

Before the break the only pitcher with a lower ERA than Wolf (3.65) was Marcum (3.39), and Wolf pitched almost 7 more innings than Marcum in that span. He also held opponents to a .259 average which was good for 3rd behind Greinke (.258). After the break Wolf has been following the same path with his 2.34 ERA good for second best among starters behind Greinke (1.56) and again has pitched more innings than any starter. All other stats are comparable as well, so I think we should see much of the same from Wolf going into late August.

A few areas are troubling when you look at his body of work, the first of which being FIP. FIP, for those that don't know, stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, so basically things that the pitcher is accountable for are the only things factored into this equation (HR, BB, K, IP). Randy Wolf has a club leading 3.30 ERA, but his FIP sits almost 100 points ahead of that at 4.25. Why the huge gap? Well to put it kindly some would say Randy Wolf is "lucky". I would disagree and say that Wolf is a product of what he does, and the supporting cast behind him. There will be fly balls, but his 8.3% HR/FB ratio is actually below the league average of 10.6%, so more often than not he will give the defense a shot at the ball before he let's one leave the park.

We know a couple things right away when talking about Wolf, number one is he is not going to surprise anyone with a 95 mph fastball, maybe a 55 mph curve, and number two is he has always been a contact pitcher. The sooner people realize these facts the better it will be for all of us. When you become blind to other stats and focus on ERA, like a lot of casual fans do, you miss the big picture that is Randy Wolf. He has given up more hits than any starter, and has the highest WHIP (1.25) since the break, which explains the large gap between his ERA and his FIP. His .281 BABIP isn't a very lucky number, actually the opposite, so Wolf does and always will need good defense behind him. Last night against the Dodgers was a prime example of this style of play. Wolf walked 5 and earned himself 4 double plays and a triple play for his efforts. This was an exaggerated version of what I am talking about, but the results are there if the defense shows up.

Wolf is what he is, a rare breed, an often looked for but seldom found product. Without a doubt I can honestly say that I would be hard pressed to find a better number 4 on a staff not named the Phillies, in the entire league. Wolf gives you veteran leadership who is active with players and media, a personality that positively effects the clubhouse, and 30-35 starts in a season that you don't have to worry about as a fan or manager if you give him a good defensive effort to back him up. His pitches aren't pretty and he may not have swagger, but Randy Wolf will always be there when you need him. I think it's time to revive the Wolf Pack in Milwaukee, who's with me!

-Alex

VFBC Podcast Episode 24

Breakdown of The Show:

Betancourt/McGehee On Fire! :00-12:54
Break
Gallardo, Is He The #1? 14:10-29:28
Break
Minor League Update 30:35-52:38
Break
Preview/Around NL Central/Chalet Award Winner 53:39-1:09:05

Listener Poll Results

"One game to win, who gets the start?"

Yovani Gallardo: 10%

Shaun Marcum: 80%

Zack Greinke: 10%

Randy Wolf: 0%

Chris Narveson: 0%

Yo's Woes

After the absolute shelling of Gallardo last night at the hands of the Rockies marked the third time in his last seven starts that he failed to pitch past the 4th. Gallardo came into this season not with lofty expectations, but just to do what he has been doing to NL bats since his call up in 2007. But, this year he has had a definite split personality when it comes to missing bats, and especially so when it comes to road games.

Gallardo raised his ERA to 4.08 after giving up 6 to the Rockies in 4 innings, that puts him at second to last in ERA among Brewers starters, surpassed only by hard luck Chris Narveson (4.75). His WHIP, 1.41, also slides into 4th place among starters with the Narvdog again bringing up the rear. So far this year Gallardo leads the team in strike outs at 106, but also leads the team in hits after giving up 127. He obviously still has the stuff, so why is it that sometimes he just flat out loses it?

Gallardo hasn't lost any velocity on any of his pitches over previous years aside from his change, which he seems to be throwing 2 mph slower this season. So, it really comes down to placement of pitches, and maybe to a degree pitch selection, that is troubling Yo. Opponents are making contact 67.5% of the time outside the strike zone, which is more than 7% over his average. Contact% is also up to 81.2% of the time, a 2% increase over average. So, it seems that his main problem this year is location rather than stuff.

Gallardo isn't a victim of luck either as his BABIP, while high (.313), is close to his average. Also his line drive rates are down, and he is posting a career low in ground balls at 48.8%. But, giving up over 3 walks per nine, and seeing his K/9 diminish to a very average 7.86, we may have to endure some tough times ahead. While Gallardo hasn't been terrible, he has had some really bad starts, and so far in July his ERA is an even 5.00. The only month he did well, or dominated I should say, was May where he posted a 2.25 ERA. He has also has major troubles on the road with an ERA of 5.02 away from the Keg.

Maybe this season we will have to endure a little rollercoaster ride at times with Gallardo, but if he can find his groove again, and work on pitch selection/location I think that Yo will be just fine. Watching him give up 11 hits last night was hard to watch, but just remember that 5 games out of his last 10 starts he gave up 5 hits or less and had a combined 1.33 ERA in those games. So, it's not a matter of Yo being lost, he just needs to find his way home.

-Alex

Questioning The Unquestionable

After dominating the NL since he was brought over from Toronto Shaun Marcum has shown he was worth everything the Brewers gave up to get the big righty. After going down with a hip strain on June 17th Brewer Nation held it's collective breath as we awaited the news on his most recent injury. Initial reports say that he is fine and Marcum expects to make his next start against the Yankees, a club that he has seen more than any other pitcher on the Brewers staff. The Crew is 12-10 in June, including a 20 game stretch in which the Brewers did not have a day off, and pulled one of the toughest interleague schedules in recent memory. We need Marcum healthy to compete with elite offenses as we have seen, so is this most recent injury a bump in the road, or a glimpse of things to come.

In his entire time with the Blue Jays as a starter Marcum never went over 200 IP. He came closest last year with 195.1, but aside from that he has gone about 150 IP in 2007 and 2008. As it stands right now Marcum has thrown 94.2 IP, and looks to eclipse the 200 IP mark for the first time in his career. Not only is he looking to set that benchmark, but he is also posting career lows in HR/9 (0.86) and HR/FB (7.7%). He has also shown that he can control a game, striking out roughly 8 per 9 and walking just over 2. Given that he has been out performing his averages most baseball fans would expect a correction, but Marcum's problems may lie in his health and not his stats.Following his breakout campaign for Toronto in 2007 things were looking up for Marcum. He had just had his highest pitch totals of his career, went 12-6, and posted a 1.4 WAR on the season. But, just like Icarus who flew too close to the sun, Marcum was shut down and would eventually have Tommy Johns surgery to repair his wing. Marcum did not pitch again in the majors until opening day 2010 and got his first win after TJS against the Oakland A's. The rest is history as Marcum had his best season, posted career numbers across the board, and had arguably his best win of his career, a contract with the Brewers.

So far Marcum is the ace that we all thought he was, and I am in no way trying to shake any confidence in Shaun, but in baseball we always look at history. Marcum has a list of injuries and ailments that seem to be red flags when it comes to IP. As I said before Marcum should reach 200 innings if he stays healthy the rest of the year, but the warnings should not be ignored. His ERA (2.95), WHIP (1.06), and opponent BA (.212) are nice to look at, but don't be surprised if Marcum has another injury as he eclipses 200. ZIPS updated estimates has Marcum pitching about 175 innings, which would be about 11 starts, and matching his win total from 2007. If he's healthy there is no doubt in my mind he will go the distance, and be able to help the Brewers in the post-season push.

-Alex

VFBC Podcast Episode 5

Breakdown of The Show:

Intro/Roenicke And His Impact So Far? Positive :00-17:45
Break
Pitchers Having Poor Springs, Cause For Concern?: 18:22-33:18
Break
Minor Leaguers That Could Be Up At Some Point In 2011: 34:00-44:53
Break
News and Notes (Gamel To Play 1B, Estrada #5, Axford Merch) 45:23-56:06

Listener Poll Results

"Who should be the Brewers 5th starter until Greinke returns?"

Mark Rogers: 73%

Amaury Rivas: 6%

Cody Scarpetta: 0%

Wily Peralta: 6%

Tim Dillard: 0%

Manny Parra: 13%

Reader Poll Results

"Best starting pitching staff in the NL Central?"

Brewers: 93%

Cardinals: 6%

Reds: 0%

Cubs: 0%

Trading For Zack Greinke Is Like Eating That Second Donut

It looks really good, but you know you shouldn't go for it. Now don't get me wrong, I think Zack Greinke is a fantastic, All-Star caliber, #1 starting pitching. And pairing him with Gallardo atop the Brewers rotation would be amazing. And as soon as I read Buster Olney's column Saturday morning where he broke the news that the Royals would shop Zack this offseason I immediately wondered if the Brewers had a chance, but then I thought about it. And like that second donut you think about eating, it seems like a great idea, but you know it isn't.

First there is the group of players you would have to give up for Greinke. It would probably take a package of three or four prospects that are big league ready now or very close to it. Think along the lines of having to part ways with some of the following; Brett Lawrie, Mat Gamel, Lorenzo Cain, Scooter Gennett, Zach Braddock, Mark Rogers, Jeremy Jeffress, Jake Odorizzi and Wily Peralta. These are all players who could be big parts of the next 6-8 years for the Brewers. Is it worth giving up a combination of three or four of these guys and somewhat giving up on the chance to be competitive for the next 6-8 years with cheap, young players?

If you make a deal for Zack, you also only have him signed for the next two seasons ($13.5 mill each year, not real expensive, but not cheap either). After that runs out, if he gives you the type of production you want and expect from him you have to believe he will test the Free Agent waters for one of those big contracts that so many ace type starting pitchers are getting lately. Now if Greinke is willing to talk possible extension before the deal is made and you can come to some sort of agreement, then that is a different story, but the odds of that are very slim.

I do see the point of view from some Brewers fans of going for it by trading for Greinke and keeping Prince for the 2011 season and just taking draft picks when he walks after the season. But going that route really doesn't guarantee you a World Series or even a playoff birth. If it did, sure go ahead make the Greinke deal and hold onto Prince. But of course there is no way of guaranteeing that. So keep all your good young prospects, trade Prince in the offseason for some pitching that can help now and go to war in 2011 with what is already a pretty good team. And know that you still might be able to compete in 2011 and will have plenty of help on the way with all the players I listed off above over the next couple of years to be in contention and get back to the postseason.