Episode 43 "Doug Jones Edition"

Breakdown of The Show:

Small Ball & Bunting 0:00-17:00
Break
Dynamic Catching Duo 17:00-31:00
Break
Hot Pitching Prospects 31:30-49:00
Break
Chalet Award Winner/News & Notes 49:30-1:01

Better Than Estrada, Brewers Lock Up Lucroy

The last time the Brewers had a home grown catching prospect as the opening day starter? 1998. Mike Matheny was a home grown Brewers prospect but he might be more known for his time as a Cardinal and was gone after 5 years. Before that, B.J. Surhoff in 1993.

They changed that Monday by locking up home grown prospect Jonathon Lucroy for 5 years/$11 MM (depending on Super Two status), buying out all of his arbitration years and a club option for a 6th year (first free agency year). And giving the Brewers someone better than Johnny Estrada for at least half a decade.

It’s true Lucroy has not been the Brewers starter on Opening Day for either of his two years of starting, but he was been the Brewers regular catcher. Gregg Zaun only started for a few weeks, Wil Nieves will holding a spot while Lucroy came back from injury.

Since coming into the Major League’s Lucroy has given the Brewers’ something they haven’t had in over a decade. They’ve had their ace, their home run hitter, their MVP candidates but not a young every day starter behind home plate.

Luc definitely has to guarantee some important attributes for the Brew Crew as an organization. While Lucroy’s bat still may be developing, he is an amazingly good defensively. His ability to frame pitches has been very well publicized. Rough statistics on the run saving abilities of framing pitches showed Lucroy was THE BEST catcher the last two years at getting extra outs. Luc’s ability to get the extra outs on the edge of the strike zone is just as important as having a Short Stop with range and defensive ability. After all where does the battle to get on base start? Home plate, and Lucroy’s goal is to leave them there.

Aside from his ability to frame pitches, he has also been one of the best in the normal defensive metric scales. He allowed the least passed balls last year, allowed the 5^th least stolen bases and was in the top 10 at successfully catching those base runners. Lucroy does exactly what you want, calls a clean game and doesn’t let runners get the extra bases other catchers may let them steal through extra balls and stolen bases. The difference between an out and a runner in scoring position can mean the game at the end of the day. All those attributes combined leave Luc with the 4^th best cERA in 2011.

While it’s true that Luc has not been the bat we expected while he was in the minors, he is still only two seasons in. Despite small drops in average and on base percentage, he has shown long streaks where he was producing at that top notch that turned him into the Brewer’s top prospect behind the plate and first long term option behind the plate in over a decade. It’s still a young career and more patience when batting should turn Luc into the bat we saw in the minors.

Knowing you have a catcher that will probably always have a positive WAR, the same person learning how the same pitchers operate off the mound, and defending the bases almost as well as anyone else, Lucroy will give the Brewers at least 4 more years of reliability behind the plate. Something they haven’t had for over a decade. I guarantee one thing and one thing only… he will be better than Johnny Estrada was for the Brewers.

-Brad

Milwaukee's Survivorman

Les Stroud could learn a thing or two from Milwaukee's talented young backstop Jonathan Lucroy. Not only has he found success this year in the big leagues, but he has survived hitting in the virtual wasteland that has been the bottom of the Brewers order at times. Production has been scarce being surrounded by the likes of Mark Kotsay, Carlos Gomez, Yuni B, and a strewn field of other pinch hitters, pitchers, and wayward bats. But, through it all Lucroy has managed a very productive season, making the times the other hitters find water in the desert that more effective.

Starting with McGehee the bottom of the order has been trying to find it's way this year. Some bats like Casey (.237) and Yuni (.252) have had success in small doses, each contributing 121 RBIs to the Brewers game. Each have been efficient at times, but each have still gone on long slumps where it seems that each at bat is another out, or more. Mark Kotsay (.260) has been the marginal hitter we all knew he would be, and Carlos Gomez's .215 average isn't helping anybody out. The only bat that has had success around Lucroy is Nyjer Morgan, but now he has cemented a spot in the two hole, and Lucroy is once again left to tow the line.

Through all the roster tweaks, and player shuffles Lucroy has still managed a .278 average, and 56 RBIs, over 381 at bats in 2011. Much of his production is due to a very healthy line drive rate (24.4%) and a very luck driven swing with his BABIP sitting at an unholy .335. This is nothing new though. Lucroy has posted BABIPs and averages higher than he has this season in the minors while striking out less. The sharp rise in K% from 14.8% in his first big league season in 2010 to 21.5% this year may have everything to do with it being his first full season of work at starting catcher. He is handling a top level pitching staff, and is playing one of the most physically demanding positions in baseball. But, Lucroy may just be pressing at times because of the hitters around him, and the opportunities he has.

This should be the beginning of a long illustrious career for the Brewers catcher. With 11 home runs this season so far he could be a possible 15-20 guy next year. What he will have to work on is his eye and taking more walks, but that will come with maturity. Because Lucroy has always maintained a good batting average when given regular time he won't hurt the Crew there as long as his contact rates don't continue a downward trend. With steady rises in OBP, and maintaining an edge of power, Lucroy should continue to find success in Milwaukee. So, the next time you think we are stuck in the desert remember that Luke will lead us to water, even if we are far from home.

-Alex

VFBC Podcast Episode 14

Breakdown of The Show:

John Axford Settling In :00-1156

Break

Corey Hart Batting 2nd, Gomez 8th 13:01-22:23

Break

3 Catchers? Misc. Bench Talk 23:23-34:51

Break

Preview/Around NL Central/Brewer of The Week 35:36-43:27

Ted Simmons Could/Should Be In HOF In 2011

In 2011 the Baseball Hall of Fame Veterans Committee can finally right the wrong of the BBWAA. They could elect former Cardinals/Brewers/Braves catcher Ted Simmons into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Other than maybe Tim Raines, Tommy John and Bert Blyleven no player has been wrongly held out of the Hall of Fame more than Ted Simmons. It seems pretty simple to me, Ted Simmons has more RBI's than Johnny Bench, scored more runs than Gary Carter and has more hits than Yogi Berra and Carlton Fisk. Yet, he is not in the HOF and all of the players previously mentioned are. In 21 seasons in the big leagues Ted has a slash line of .285/.348/.437 with 248 HR's. He made the All-Star team eight times and has a career WAR of 50.4.

It seems to me that the proof is in the pudding. Ted Simmons straight up has the stats as a catcher similar to all other HOF catchers, so why is he not in the HOF? That is a great question that I do not have the answer to. According to Baseball Reference 5 of the 10 batters most similar in their careers to Simmons are already in Cooperstown. But now that "Simba" has been added to the Veterans Committee ballot for the 2011 class he could finally get his just due. Like the BWAA ballot, Simmons must get 75% of the vote from the Veterans Committee to get elected into Cooperstown. I understand that Simmons, if elected will go in wearing a Cardinals cap on his plaque, but the fact is he spent 5 very good years in Milwaukee which includes 81' and 82', perhaps the best two seasons in Brewers history. To me Simmons is still the best catcher that ever donned a Brewers uniform. He was my starting catcher on my All-Time Brewers roster I put together a few months back.

We'll find out on December 6th if the Veterans Committee is smart enough to elect a man to the HOF that should have been elected by the BWAA back sometime in the 90's. Simmons was first on the ballot back in 1994 and only get 3.7% of the vote, so he dropped off the ballot after only one year of being eligible. Such a crime.

UPDATE: Here is something I didn't think of yesterday when I wrote this post. The Brewers currently have four numbers retired (besides Jackie Robinson's #42). All four players (Yount, Molitor, Aaron and Fingers) are in the HOF. This makes me think that if Simmons gets in, the Brewers will retire his #23 at Miller Park. That is if they continue to stand by their way of thinking that your number gets retired if you are a HOFer. Simmons actually played more seasons in Milwaukee than Aaron and Fingers. I have always felt that Simmons and Cecil Cooper were the other two players who SHOULD have their numbers retired.

Brewers Sign Another Backup Catcher

Earlier this week I wrote a post about the candidates for the backup catcher job behind starter Gregg Zaun. You can add a new name to that competition list. Former Marlins and Tigers catcher Matt Treanor who was signed to a minor league contact with an invite to spring training. Treanor is 34 years old and honestly, the best and most interesting thing about him is that he is married to her. Yes that is Misty May, one of the most famous beach volleyball players of all-time. Well done Matt. But I'm not sure that is enough to win you the backup catching job over Lucroy, Kottaras or Salome.

Backup Catcher

With the Brewers signing of Gregg Zaun and the departure of Jason Kendall, we know who the starting catcher will be in 2010. But when Mike Rivera was not tendered a contract before the deadline to do so, it left a big question mark as to who will be the backup catcher in 2010 and get around 60 starts behind the plate. The Brewers have three options going into spring training. Prospects Jonathan Lucroy and Angel Salome, or recently claimed off waivers from Boston George Kottaras.

Lucroy had a very nice season at AA Huntsville in 2009 and put up a good line of .267/.380/.418, 9 HR and 66 RBI's. On defense Lucroy threw out 40% of base stealer's and had a .991 fielding % with 7 errors. Lucroy had started 2009 as the Brewers #2 catching prospect behind Angel Salome, but after his strong season for Huntsville as well as a very good showing in the AFL (.310/.354/.483, 2 HR and 10 RBI's), Lucroy has jumped Salome in many fans minds as well as the Brewers organizations mind as the #1 catching prospect and more then likely should be the starter in 2011.

Salome regressed some in 2009 while playing at AAA Nashville after having a monster year in 2008 at AA Huntsville, but he also battled some injuries playing in only 82 games. His line was .286/.334/.413, 6 HR and 44 RBI's. On defense Salome threw out just 30% of base stealer's with a fielding % of .976 and 10 errors. The thought seemed to be that Salome was better on offense while Lucroy was better on defense, but it seems that Lucroy is catching up on offense and still the better defender and that is why he has jumped Salome.

George Kottaras was claimed off waivers early this offseason after playing 45 games for the Boston Red Sox in 2009. His line was .237/.308/.387, 1 HR and 10 RBI's. Defensively Kottaras threw out just 16% of base stealer's with a fielding % of .992 and 8 errors. He was used often as the catcher for knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. Kottaras like Gregg Zaun is a switch hitter at the plate.

So there you have the three candidates. Kottaras has something the other two don't, a good chunk of big league experience. But Lucroy and Salome have more talent and more future potential. It sounds as if it will be an open competition between the three and whoever performs best in spring may break camp with the job. As of right now I would like it to be either Lucroy or Kottaras. Lucroy could use a season as the backup learning the ropes behind Zaun before taking over in 2011 as the starter. If they don't go that route I would like to see Kottaras get it, Lucroy start at AAA and Salome traded. Stay tuned.

Reader Poll Results

"How many games per week should Mike Rivera start?"

0: 11% (1 Vote)

1: 33% (3 Votes)

2: 55% (5 Votes)

3: 0% (0 Votes)