Trade Braun Now, Lucroy Later

We all know that Jonathan Lucroy likely won’t be a Brewer for much longer, and now the most successful -- and controversial -- Brewer in a long time is entering the rumor mill in Ryan Braun.

Braun is having his most successful season since the 2012 redemption season. Through 33 games he’s slashing an astounding .376/.439/.600, numbers that could justify any team taking on the remaining $90 million or so of his contract.

There has been some debate about whether or not Braun and Lucroy should be traded in the same year. This got me thinking, if they only traded only one of those players this year, would it be more beneficial to trade Braun or Lucroy? I think the answer needs to be Braun and here’s why:

1. He’s Injury Prone

Ok, Braun hasn’t missed a huge percentage of the season since 2013 when he was suspended and injured, he will be on the field if he can be. There is one thing to note about his injuries over the last few years though, they cause a significant drop in his production. Through nagging muscle spasms and thumb injuries he went from a career OPS of .943 to .825. His number are already likely unsustainable throughout the year even if he’s returned to pre-2013 form and is only getting older and more susceptible each passing minute.

2. He May Never Hold More Value Again

According to his performance from 2013-2015, Braun’s current performance is a stroke of luck. He’s carrying a fairly large price tag -- although small by most other modern MLB contracts -- and a negative perception due to his PED suspension and everything that came with it. The thing is, if he’s performing anywhere close to what he is now by the trading deadline, no one’s going to care. Any team that can get an MVP at his current cost will take all of those bad things, but if we see that production drop off he will go back to being nearly untradeable unless we see another astronomical spike.

On the other hand, Lucroy will only lose some value barring injury. Aside from last year and other freak incidents, Luc doesn’t come with those nagging injury concerns and has been a very consistent performer over the last few years. As long as he continues that straight line projection, he will still hold significant value in the offseason even if teams aren’t getting that extra half-year. You absolutely will lose value but Luc’s value isn’t nearly as volatile as Braun’s is and if I’m wagering a huge amount of prospects on who is most likely to maintain their stock, Luc is the safer bet.

3. If He Goes I Want to Just Rip the Bandaid Off

I am far from a Braun apologist. He made it hard for me to put blind faith and true fandom into athletes. It was a valuable lesson most adults should learn, players can hurt you but the logo and team will always -- in most cases -- be there. However, something inside of me still cheers hard for Braun. He is a huge part of some of the most significant Brewer moments of my life time. I’ll never forget his huge home runs in 2007, 2008 and 2011. He is a part of my number one most cherished Brewers memory, CC Sabathia’s complete game victory over the Cubs. I don’t want to spend every season wondering if he’s gone or not, so rip off the bandaid and send him packing. I can watch Lucroy go, I’ve been campaigning for it longer than most fans and as much as I’ve liked him he is more Cecil Cooper than Robin Yount in terms of my personal feelings.

How do you feel about it? Do you want both Braun and Lucroy to be traded this season? Do you want one to be traded or the other? Or do you want them both to hang around? Weigh in on my Twitter poll.

By the trading deadline, I hope the Brewers...

— Brew Crew Blue (@BrewCrewBlue) May 13, 2016

 -Brad

Episode 65

Breakdown of The Show:

Segura, Red Hot, Contact Extension? 0:00-23:00
Break
K-Rod Called Up/Bullpen Now 23:00-35:00
Break
Weeks & Lucroy Struggles 35:00-50:00
Break
Preview/Around NL Central/Chalet Award Winner 50:00-1:02:00

Episode 50 "Chris Spurling Edition"

Breakdown of The Show:

Recharging Greinke's Batteries 0:00-20:00

Break

Axford to K-Rod, Right Move? 20:00-41:00

Break

Lucroy, Marcum Back Soon 41:00-1:01:00

Break
Preview/Around NL Central/Chalet Award Winner 1:01:00-1:10:00

Episode 46 "Ray King Edition"

Breakdown of The Show:

Roster Moves: Ransom & McClendon 0:00-16:30

Break

Luuuuuuuuuc On Fire! 17:00-29:00

Break

Guest Interview: Vince of Miller Park Drunk 29:30-48:00

Break

Preview/Around NL Central/Chalet Award Winner 48:00-1:05:00

Episode 43 "Doug Jones Edition"

Breakdown of The Show:

Small Ball & Bunting 0:00-17:00
Break
Dynamic Catching Duo 17:00-31:00
Break
Hot Pitching Prospects 31:30-49:00
Break
Chalet Award Winner/News & Notes 49:30-1:01

Better Than Estrada, Brewers Lock Up Lucroy

The last time the Brewers had a home grown catching prospect as the opening day starter? 1998. Mike Matheny was a home grown Brewers prospect but he might be more known for his time as a Cardinal and was gone after 5 years. Before that, B.J. Surhoff in 1993.

They changed that Monday by locking up home grown prospect Jonathon Lucroy for 5 years/$11 MM (depending on Super Two status), buying out all of his arbitration years and a club option for a 6th year (first free agency year). And giving the Brewers someone better than Johnny Estrada for at least half a decade.

It’s true Lucroy has not been the Brewers starter on Opening Day for either of his two years of starting, but he was been the Brewers regular catcher. Gregg Zaun only started for a few weeks, Wil Nieves will holding a spot while Lucroy came back from injury.

Since coming into the Major League’s Lucroy has given the Brewers’ something they haven’t had in over a decade. They’ve had their ace, their home run hitter, their MVP candidates but not a young every day starter behind home plate.

Luc definitely has to guarantee some important attributes for the Brew Crew as an organization. While Lucroy’s bat still may be developing, he is an amazingly good defensively. His ability to frame pitches has been very well publicized. Rough statistics on the run saving abilities of framing pitches showed Lucroy was THE BEST catcher the last two years at getting extra outs. Luc’s ability to get the extra outs on the edge of the strike zone is just as important as having a Short Stop with range and defensive ability. After all where does the battle to get on base start? Home plate, and Lucroy’s goal is to leave them there.

Aside from his ability to frame pitches, he has also been one of the best in the normal defensive metric scales. He allowed the least passed balls last year, allowed the 5^th least stolen bases and was in the top 10 at successfully catching those base runners. Lucroy does exactly what you want, calls a clean game and doesn’t let runners get the extra bases other catchers may let them steal through extra balls and stolen bases. The difference between an out and a runner in scoring position can mean the game at the end of the day. All those attributes combined leave Luc with the 4^th best cERA in 2011.

While it’s true that Luc has not been the bat we expected while he was in the minors, he is still only two seasons in. Despite small drops in average and on base percentage, he has shown long streaks where he was producing at that top notch that turned him into the Brewer’s top prospect behind the plate and first long term option behind the plate in over a decade. It’s still a young career and more patience when batting should turn Luc into the bat we saw in the minors.

Knowing you have a catcher that will probably always have a positive WAR, the same person learning how the same pitchers operate off the mound, and defending the bases almost as well as anyone else, Lucroy will give the Brewers at least 4 more years of reliability behind the plate. Something they haven’t had for over a decade. I guarantee one thing and one thing only… he will be better than Johnny Estrada was for the Brewers.

-Brad

Milwaukee's Survivorman

Les Stroud could learn a thing or two from Milwaukee's talented young backstop Jonathan Lucroy. Not only has he found success this year in the big leagues, but he has survived hitting in the virtual wasteland that has been the bottom of the Brewers order at times. Production has been scarce being surrounded by the likes of Mark Kotsay, Carlos Gomez, Yuni B, and a strewn field of other pinch hitters, pitchers, and wayward bats. But, through it all Lucroy has managed a very productive season, making the times the other hitters find water in the desert that more effective.

Starting with McGehee the bottom of the order has been trying to find it's way this year. Some bats like Casey (.237) and Yuni (.252) have had success in small doses, each contributing 121 RBIs to the Brewers game. Each have been efficient at times, but each have still gone on long slumps where it seems that each at bat is another out, or more. Mark Kotsay (.260) has been the marginal hitter we all knew he would be, and Carlos Gomez's .215 average isn't helping anybody out. The only bat that has had success around Lucroy is Nyjer Morgan, but now he has cemented a spot in the two hole, and Lucroy is once again left to tow the line.

Through all the roster tweaks, and player shuffles Lucroy has still managed a .278 average, and 56 RBIs, over 381 at bats in 2011. Much of his production is due to a very healthy line drive rate (24.4%) and a very luck driven swing with his BABIP sitting at an unholy .335. This is nothing new though. Lucroy has posted BABIPs and averages higher than he has this season in the minors while striking out less. The sharp rise in K% from 14.8% in his first big league season in 2010 to 21.5% this year may have everything to do with it being his first full season of work at starting catcher. He is handling a top level pitching staff, and is playing one of the most physically demanding positions in baseball. But, Lucroy may just be pressing at times because of the hitters around him, and the opportunities he has.

This should be the beginning of a long illustrious career for the Brewers catcher. With 11 home runs this season so far he could be a possible 15-20 guy next year. What he will have to work on is his eye and taking more walks, but that will come with maturity. Because Lucroy has always maintained a good batting average when given regular time he won't hurt the Crew there as long as his contact rates don't continue a downward trend. With steady rises in OBP, and maintaining an edge of power, Lucroy should continue to find success in Milwaukee. So, the next time you think we are stuck in the desert remember that Luke will lead us to water, even if we are far from home.

-Alex

VFBC Podcast Episode 13

Breakdown of The Show:

Shaun Marcum's Great Start 00-11:13
Break
Interview with Kyle Lobner from Brew Crew Ball 12:09-26:26
Break
Emergence of Jonathan Lucroy At The Plate 27:52-37:34
Break
Preview Week Ahead/Around then NL Central/Brewer of The Week 38:42-46:44

VFBC Podcast Episode 3

Break Down of The Show:

Possible McGehee Extension? :00-22:28
Break
Options For 6th Starter 23:20-41:25
Break
Spring Training Surprises/Youngsters 42:01-1:00:55
Break
News and Notes (Catching, Injury Updates, Broadcast Teams) 1:01:46-1:20:29
Close

VFBC Podcast Epiosde 2

Breakdown of The Show:

Lucroy's Injury/Catching Options :00-17:02
Break
Greinke Interview/Interesting Cat 17:46-32:07
Break
Wainright Injury/Impact on NL Central 33:00-44:27
Break
Rotation Set/Marcum Home Opener 45:13-52:17
Break
News and Notes 52:48-59:26

Backup Catcher

With the Brewers signing of Gregg Zaun and the departure of Jason Kendall, we know who the starting catcher will be in 2010. But when Mike Rivera was not tendered a contract before the deadline to do so, it left a big question mark as to who will be the backup catcher in 2010 and get around 60 starts behind the plate. The Brewers have three options going into spring training. Prospects Jonathan Lucroy and Angel Salome, or recently claimed off waivers from Boston George Kottaras.

Lucroy had a very nice season at AA Huntsville in 2009 and put up a good line of .267/.380/.418, 9 HR and 66 RBI's. On defense Lucroy threw out 40% of base stealer's and had a .991 fielding % with 7 errors. Lucroy had started 2009 as the Brewers #2 catching prospect behind Angel Salome, but after his strong season for Huntsville as well as a very good showing in the AFL (.310/.354/.483, 2 HR and 10 RBI's), Lucroy has jumped Salome in many fans minds as well as the Brewers organizations mind as the #1 catching prospect and more then likely should be the starter in 2011.

Salome regressed some in 2009 while playing at AAA Nashville after having a monster year in 2008 at AA Huntsville, but he also battled some injuries playing in only 82 games. His line was .286/.334/.413, 6 HR and 44 RBI's. On defense Salome threw out just 30% of base stealer's with a fielding % of .976 and 10 errors. The thought seemed to be that Salome was better on offense while Lucroy was better on defense, but it seems that Lucroy is catching up on offense and still the better defender and that is why he has jumped Salome.

George Kottaras was claimed off waivers early this offseason after playing 45 games for the Boston Red Sox in 2009. His line was .237/.308/.387, 1 HR and 10 RBI's. Defensively Kottaras threw out just 16% of base stealer's with a fielding % of .992 and 8 errors. He was used often as the catcher for knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. Kottaras like Gregg Zaun is a switch hitter at the plate.

So there you have the three candidates. Kottaras has something the other two don't, a good chunk of big league experience. But Lucroy and Salome have more talent and more future potential. It sounds as if it will be an open competition between the three and whoever performs best in spring may break camp with the job. As of right now I would like it to be either Lucroy or Kottaras. Lucroy could use a season as the backup learning the ropes behind Zaun before taking over in 2011 as the starter. If they don't go that route I would like to see Kottaras get it, Lucroy start at AAA and Salome traded. Stay tuned.

Lucroy To Possibly Make Jump From AA to MLB

Per Tom Haudricourt of the JS, Doug Melvin is becoming more and more comfortable with the idea of catching prospect Jonathan Lucroy being the Brewers catcher or at least splitting time in half with a veteran catcher in 2010. I have to say that is quite refreshing to hear. Because I am very comfortable with that idea. Since it means we will more then likely not see Jason Kendall and his wet paper towel for a bat catch 150 games in 2010. I know there are some Kendall supporters out there like my buddy Tom who say; "well he plays great defense and calls a great game." Really? Yeah he did in 2008 when he threw out a crazy number of runners and looked good catching Sabathia and Sheets. What about 2009? Yeah, not so much.

I like the idea of Lucroy because he is the future anyway. And if he seems close and ready now might as well get him in there. He had good numbers at AA Huntsville and is doing great in the AFL. His defense is already there, and he seems to have a bat, with some pop in it. Would be nice to see a catcher in our lineup with a slugging % over .305. Which I think Lucroy could do in his sleep. As stated in the Haudricourt article some other good young catchers in the big leagues have made the jump from AA to MLB. The Dodgers Russell Martin, the Dbacks Chris Snyder and the A's Kurt Suzuki. Seeing Lucroy behind the plate in 2010 would actually make me excited about our catcher for pretty much the first in a long time. See Kendall, Jason; Estrada, Johnny; Bako, Paul; Casanova, Raul; Moeller, Chad; Levis, Jesse; Valle, Dave; etc.

Ok, Please Explain This To Me

This Saturday MLB Network is going to broadcast the AFL "Rising Stars Showcase". The game will be comprised of an East Team and a West Team, with the best players from the 2009 AFL. The Brewers sent eight players to the prestigious prospect league played every fall since 1992. Three position players: CF Lorenzo Cain, 3B Taylor Green and C Jonathan Lucroy. Also five pitchers: Zach Braddock, Josh Butler, Omar Aguilar, Mark Rogers and Rob Wooten.

Six of the eight players the Brewers sent have struggled for the most part. Two have been very, very good. Catcher Jonathan Lucroy had a line of .385/.407/.615 with 2 HR and 5 RBI and LHP Zach Braddock who has a 1.04 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6 K's and 2 saves in 8.2 IP. You would think that those numbers would get both Lucroy and Braddock in the "Rising Stars Showcase" on Saturday. Well you would be wrong. The only Brewer to make the team was RHP Mark Rogers. Now don't get me wrong I'm just glad I will get to see one Brewer play regardless of who it is. And I am a big Rogers fan, but he has been terrible this AFL. 12.27 ERA, 2.45 WHIP in 7.1 innings.

So how the hell do the goofs that select the East and West teams leave Braddock and to an even crazier extent Lucroy off the West roster and out of this game? Your guess is as good as mine. I think it is complete bullshit. I was very much looking forward to getting to see Lucroy in action for the first time after hearing and reading so much about how much he is progressing into the Brewers #1 catching prospect. Oh well, gonna have to wait till spring training 2010 I guess.

Reader Poll Results

"Which Brewers catching prospect is the future?"

Jonathan Lucroy: 83% (20 Votes)

Angel Salome: 16% (4 Votes)

Ketih Law Chat ESPN.com 10/22/09

Keith Law is one of my absolute favorite baseball writers. He is very smart, informative and kind of funny in a snarky kind of way. I read as much of his stuff as I can, although without a ESPN Insider subscription that can be difficult. Keith does these chats and in his most recent there were a few Brewers related questions/answers. Check them out:

James (Kenosha,Wi)

What is your take on Jonathan Lucroy do you think he would be ready to take over the Brewers catcher spot by June?

Klaw

(1:15 PM)

They've got an interesting dilemma with him and Salome. Neither one looks like a star; Lucroy is definitely a catcher, probably a 50 (solid average regular), while Salome has more bat potential but may not be able to catch. I'd probably let Salome start 2010 in the majors and send Lucroy to AAA. (By the way, how awful was that Trevor Hoffman extension? Extremely fluky HR rate gets you $8 million? 10% or more of the team's payroll for a one-inning closer, and not a good one? Wow.)

Russ (Balt Md)

Bret Lawrie question. Is he an impact bat in MLB? Ive heard he's playing 2B, is this Big News for his value, if true?How is he progressing? 2011 callup?

Klaw

(1:18 PM)

He really has no position. Good bat, potentially a special bat, but he might end up in LF.

Ryan (madison,wi)

Who says no: Fielder for Kemp?

Klaw

(1:35 PM)

Dodgers. With howls of derisive laughter.

He seems right on about Lucroy and Salome. I personally like Lucroy more. Think he will be better defensively and be fine offensively. As for his side note on Hoffman being a bad signing I couldn't disagree more. $8 mill for a proven closer who is coming off a fantastic year when you have no option around even close to as good, I don't see any issue with that. Maybe he doesn't remember what the Brewers went through with Gagne/Torres in 2008, you were never safe with a lead. With Hoffman I feel safe.

Brett Lawrie may very well end up in LF, with Braun moving to RF at some point. But for now I think the Brewers intend to keep him at 2B. He had some issues there, I went to a few Rattlers games this past season and he played really well in the game I saw. Turned two well and showed good range. When I hear the term "potentially special bat" with Lawrie it sure gets me excited for what this kid might turn out to be. He is only 19. A Fielder for Kemp trade? He says Dodgers would laugh at the Brewers. Why? Yes Kemp is a 5 tool talent, but Fielder is one of the top 5 hitters in all of the game. That would be a pretty even deal I think. But I don't think either team would do it at this point. It's a hypothetical deal. Not even a rumor to it.