Monday, October 18, 2010

Trading For Zack Greinke Is Like Eating That Second Donut

It looks really good, but you know you shouldn't go for it. Now don't get me wrong, I think Zack Greinke is a fantastic, All-Star caliber, #1 starting pitching. And pairing him with Gallardo atop the Brewers rotation would be amazing. And as soon as I read Buster Olney's column Saturday morning where he broke the news that the Royals would shop Zack this offseason I immediately wondered if the Brewers had a chance, but then I thought about it. And like that second donut you think about eating, it seems like a great idea, but you know it isn't.

First there is the group of players you would have to give up for Greinke. It would probably take a package of three or four prospects that are big league ready now or very close to it. Think along the lines of having to part ways with some of the following; Brett Lawrie, Mat Gamel, Lorenzo Cain, Scooter Gennett, Zach Braddock, Mark Rogers, Jeremy Jeffress, Jake Odorizzi and Wily Peralta. These are all players who could be big parts of the next 6-8 years for the Brewers. Is it worth giving up a combination of three or four of these guys and somewhat giving up on the chance to be competitive for the next 6-8 years with cheap, young players?

If you make a deal for Zack, you also only have him signed for the next two seasons ($13.5 mill each year, not real expensive, but not cheap either). After that runs out, if he gives you the type of production you want and expect from him you have to believe he will test the Free Agent waters for one of those big contracts that so many ace type starting pitchers are getting lately. Now if Greinke is willing to talk possible extension before the deal is made and you can come to some sort of agreement, then that is a different story, but the odds of that are very slim.

I do see the point of view from some Brewers fans of going for it by trading for Greinke and keeping Prince for the 2011 season and just taking draft picks when he walks after the season. But going that route really doesn't guarantee you a World Series or even a playoff birth. If it did, sure go ahead make the Greinke deal and hold onto Prince. But of course there is no way of guaranteeing that. So keep all your good young prospects, trade Prince in the offseason for some pitching that can help now and go to war in 2011 with what is already a pretty good team. And know that you still might be able to compete in 2011 and will have plenty of help on the way with all the players I listed off above over the next couple of years to be in contention and get back to the postseason.

3 comments:

Steve said...

This might be the worst explanation to this trade possibility I have ever heard!! What are you thinking? The problem with this loser is when he says throwing away the next 6-8 years of potential, is he not looking at the core of talent we have right now????? We are solid all over the field, and at the plate! By saving ALL of those prospects it gives us know bargaining power in the trade market. You trade prospects to crappy teams for the stars on that team. Its the way the business works. If we dont make a move with those young guys for an ace, OR TWO, we will be winning 75 games everyone of those 6-8 years. Look at these team batting avgs:

NYY=.267
TEX=.276
PHI=.260
SF=.257
Your Milwaukee Brewers=.262

Now....What do you suppose the difference is here? My guess is when you think of those teams you think of Halladay, Oswalt, CC, Pettite, Lee, Lincecum, Cain, Wilson, and so on!!! When you ask someone about the brewers they say, fielder, braun, weeks, hart, and mcghee. Do you really think we should hold on to more position players???? This guy is an idiot!! You trade them now and you get 2 years of 95-100 wins every few years, or you hold them and you have a decade of mediocre teams that you need to give away t-shirts to get the fans there. Eventually the bobblehead craze will go away!!

JD said...

Steve, I respect your opinion and can see your point. But you do realize that some of the prospects I mentioned are pitchers (Rogers, Jeffress, Odorizzi, Peralta) we would more than likely have to give up two of them plus one or two position players I listed. That just seems like a lot to give up for a two year rental. I would rather sustain success similar to the Twins over a period of time. That is all I am saying. Thanks for reading and commenting.

Steve said...

I understand that some of them are pitching prospects. The problem is, if we want a shot at the playoffs and more we need to pull the trigger now. Look at the average age (maturity) of the quality pitchers. Without checking, I would guess 30+. The position players are in the prime of thier careers NOW! There is know time to, bring along young prospects if you want to make a run at the show. Im my opinion, by dealing the prospects as we need to, and spending money for today, is the only way we see real sucess in Milwaukee. I don't think we are on the same page when we talk about sustained success. I dont think .500 or a hair above is success. Eventually our division will swing to having to win 95-100 games to compete. To make a run every few years is makes more sense than talking about maybe making a run, is more respectful. not only would this draw more interest to the players to play in beer town, but it would mean no more having to hear the stories from 2 generations ago, about how the Brewers were good!